Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Predicting persistence in benthic marine species with complex life cycles: linking dispersal dynamics to redistribution potential and thermal tolerance limits

  • Original paper
  • Published:
Marine Biology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Marine communities face continuing and accelerating climate change. Predicting which species will go extinct or persist in future climates requires assessing redistribution potential and tolerance to warming, both of which can depend on dispersal ability. We evaluated biophysical processes that could promote population persistence under changing climatic conditions by (1) promoting poleward dispersal in an Eastern Boundary Current region, where offshore currents flow predominantly equatorward, and (2) increasing the frequency of more thermotolerant phenotypes in marine populations. We paired intensive time-series observations (during 2014 and 2015) of recruitment and thermal tolerance limits for cohorts of marine mussels with simulated larval transport using a high-resolution, 3D coastal circulation model of the northeastern Pacific. We used the modeling results to predict the proportion of individuals in each recruiting cohort that originated from sources south or north of our study site on the USA west coast (45.50°N, 123.95°W) as well as the environmental conditions experienced in the water column. We found that the coastal upwelling index was related to origin of individuals within recruiting cohorts, with poleward recruitment predicted to increase under downwelling conditions. Furthermore, thermal tolerance limits were higher in cohorts predicted to experience higher and more variable temperatures during dispersal. These findings highlight complex links between demographic and physical transport processes as well as the potential for climate-driven changes in wind patterns to indirectly affect species’ abilities to cope with increasing temperatures.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Allen RM, Marshall DJ (2010) The larval legacy: cascading effects of recruit phenotype on post-recruitment interactions. Oikos 199:1977–1983

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Austin JA, Barth JA (2002) Variation in the position of the upwelling front on the Oregon shelf. J Geophys Res Oceans 107:C11

    Google Scholar 

  • Ayata SD, Stolba R, Comtet T, Thiébaut É (2011) Meroplankton distribution and its relationship to coastal mesoscale hydrological structure in the northern Bay of Biscay (NE Atlantic). J Plankton Res 33:1193–1211

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Banas N, McDonald P, Armstrong D (2009) Green crab larval retention in Willapa Bay, Washington: an intensive Lagrangian modeling approach. Estuar Coasts 32:893–905

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Benestan L, Quinn BK, Maaroufi H, Laporte M, Clark K, Greenwood SJ, Rochette R, Bernatchez L (2016) Seascape genomics provides evidence for thermal adaptation and current-mediated population structure in American lobster (Homarus americanus). Mol Ecol 25:5073–5092

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Berg MP, Kiers ET, Driessen G, van der Heijden M, Kooi BW, Kuenen F, Liefting M, Verhoef HA, Ellers J (2010) Adapt or disperse: understanding species persistence in a changing world. Glob Change Biol 16:587–598

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bestion E, Clobert J, Cote J (2015) Dispersal response to climate change: scaling down to intraspecific variation. Ecol Lett 18:1226–1233

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Blanchette CA, Miner CM, Raimondi PT, Lohse D, Heady KE, Broitman BR (2008) Biogeographical patterns of rocky intertidal communities along the Pacific coast of North America. J Biogeogr 35:1593–1607

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bracken MES, Menge BA, Foley MM, Sorte CJB, Lubchenco J, Schiel DR (2012) Mussel selectivity for high-quality food drives carbon inputs into open-coast intertidal ecosystems. Mar Ecol Progr Ser 459:53–62

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Burrows MT, Schoeman DS, Buckley LB, Moore P, Poloczanska ES, Brander KM, Brown C, Bruno JF, Duarte CM, Halpern BS, Holding J, Kappel CV, Kiessling W, O’Connor MI, Pandolfi JM, Parmesan C, Schwing FB, Sydeman WJ, Richardson AJ (2011) The pace of shifting climate in marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Science 334:652–655

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Byers JE, Pringle JM (2006) Going against the flow: retention, range limits and invasions in advective environments. Mar Ecol Progr Ser 313:27–41

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Byrne M (2011) Impact of ocean warming and ocean acidification on marine invertebrate life history stages: vulnerabilities and potential for persistence in a changing ocean. Oceanogr Mar Biol Annu Rev 49:1–42

    Google Scholar 

  • Carson HS, López-Duarte PC, Rasmussen L, Wang D, Levin LA (2010) Reproductive timing alters population connectivity in marine metapopulations. Curr Biol 20:1926–1931

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Carson HS, Cook GS, Lopez-Duarte PC, Levin LA (2011) Evaluating the importance of demographic connectivity in a marine metapopulation. Ecology 92:1972–1984

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chia F-S, Buckland-Nicks J, Young CM (1984) Locomotion of marine invertebrate larvae: a review. Can J Zool 62:1205–1222

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cowen RK, Sponaugle S (2009) Larval dispersal and marine population connectivity. Annu Rev Mar Sci 1:443–466

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Crean AJ, Monro K, Marshall DJ (2011) Fitness consequences of larval traits persist across the metamorphic boundary. Evolution 65:3079–3089

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Davis KA, Banas NS, Giddings SN, Siedlecki SA, MacCready P, Lessard EJ, Kudela RM, Hickey BM (2014) Estuary-enhanced upwelling of marine nutrients fuels coastal productivity in the US Pacific Northwest. J Geophys Res Oceans 119:8778–8799

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Deutsch CA, Tewksbury JJ, Huey RB, Sheldon KS, Ghalambor CK, Haak DC, Martin PR (2008) Impacts of climate warming on terrestrial ectotherms across latitude. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 105:6668–6672

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Drake PT, Edwards CA, Morgan SG, Dever EP (2013) Influence of larval behavior on transport and population connectivity in a realistic simulation of the California Current System. J Mar Res 71:317–350

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Farrell TM, Bracher D, Roughgarden J (1991) Cross-shelf transport causes recruitment to intertidal populations in central California. Limnol Oceanogr 36:279–288

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Foo SA, Sparks KM, Uthicke S, Karelitz S, Barker M, Byrne M, Lamare M (2016) Contributions of genetic and environmental variance in early development of the Antarctic sea urchin Sterechinus neumayeri in response to increased ocean temperature and acidification. Mar Biol 163:1–11

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Gaylord B, Gaines SD (2000) Temperature or transport? Range limits in marine species mediated solely by flow. Am Nat 155:769–789

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Giddings SN, MacCready P, Hickey BM, Banas NS, Davis KA, Siedlecki SA, Trainer VL, Kudela RM, Pelland NA, Connolly TP (2014) Hindcasts of potential harmful algal bloom transport pathways on the Pacific Northwest coast. J Geophys Res Oceans 119:2439–2461

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gilg MR, Hilbish TJ (2003) The geography of marine larval dispersal: coupling genetics with fine-scale physical oceanography. Ecology 84:2989–2998

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Giménez L (2010) Relationships between habitat conditions, larval traits, and juvenile performance in a marine invertebrate. Ecology 91:1401–1413

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hameed SO, White JW, Miller SH, Nickols KJ, Morgan SG (2016) Inverse approach to estimating larval dispersal reveals limited population connectivity along 700 km of wave-swept open coast. Proc R Soc B Biol Sci 283:20160370

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hastings A, Botsford LW (2006) Persistence of spatial populations depends on returning home. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 103:6067–6072

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Hayhurst S, Rawson PD (2009) Species-specific variation in larval survival and patterns of distribution for the blue mussels Mytilus edulis and Mytilus trossulus in the Gulf of Maine. J Molluscan Stud 75:215–222

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Helmuth B, Harley CDG, Halpin PM, O’Donnell M, Hofmann GE, Blanchette CA (2002) Climate change and latitudinal patterns of intertidal thermal stress. Science 298:1015–1017

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Hickey B, Geier S, Kachel N, Ramp S, Kosro PM, Connolly T (2016) Alongcoast structure and interannual variability of seasonal midshelf water properties and velocity in the Northern California Current System. J Geophys Res Oceans 121:7408–7430

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huyer A (1983) Coastal upwelling in the California current system. Progr Oceanogr 12:259–284

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jenewein BT, Gosselin LA (2013) Ontogenetic shift in stress tolerance thresholds of Mytilus trossulus: effects of desiccation and heat on juvenile mortality. Mar Ecol Progr Ser 481:147–159

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jensen N, Allen RM, Marshall DJ (2014) Adaptive maternal and paternal effects: gamete plasticity in response to parental stress. Funct Ecol 28:724–733

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Johnson DW, Grorud-Colvert K, Sponaugle S, Semmens BX (2014) Phenotypic variation and selective mortality as major drivers of recruitment variability in fishes. Ecol Lett 17:743–755

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jump AS, Penuelas J (2005) Running to stand still: adaptation and the response of plants to rapid climate change. Ecol Lett 8:1010–1020

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Keith SA, Herbert RJ, Norton PA, Hawkins SJ, Newton AC (2011) Individualistic species limitations of climate-induced range expansions generated by mesoscale dispersal barriers. Divers Distrib 17:275–286

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kim SY, Cornuelle BD, Terrill EJ, Jones B et al (2013) Poleward propagating subinertial alongshore surface currents off the U.S. West Coast. J Geophys Res Oceans 118:6791–6806

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kinlan BP, Gaines SD (2003) Propagule dispersal in marine and terrestrial environments: a community perspective. Ecology 84:2007–2020

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kirincich AR, Barth JA, Grantham BA, Menge BA, Lubchenco J (2005) Wind-driven inner-shelf circulation off central Oregon during summer. J Geophys Res Oceans 110:17

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Landry MR, Hickey BM (1989) Coastal oceanography of Washington and Oregon. Elsevier, Amsterdam

    Google Scholar 

  • Largier JL (2003) Considerations in estimating larval dispersal distances from oceanographic data. Ecol Appl 13:S71–S89

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ling SD, Johnson CR, Ridgway K, Hobday AJ, Haddon M (2009) Climate-driven range extension of a sea urchin: inferring future trends by analysis of recent population dynamics. Glob Change Biol 15:719–731

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Loarie SR, Duffy PB, Hamilton H, Asner GP, Field CB, Ackerly DD (2009) The velocity of climate change. Nature 462:1052–1057

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Logan CA, Kost LE, Somero GN (2012) Latitudinal differences in Mytilus californianus thermal physiology. Mar Ecol Progr Ser 450:93–105

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lymbery RA, Evans JP (2013) Genetic variation underlies temperature tolerance of embryos in the sea urchin Heliocidaris erythrogramma armigera. J Evol Biol 26:2271–2282

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Lynn RJ, Simpson JJ (1987) The California Current system: the seasonal variability of its physical characteristics. J Geophys Res Oceans 92:12947–12966

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mace AJ, Morgan SG (2006) Biological and physical coupling in the lee of a small headland: contrasting transport mechanisms for crab larvae in an upwelling region. Mar Ecol Progr Ser 324:185–196

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Maclean IMD, Wilson RJ (2011) Recent ecological responses to climate change support predictions of high extinction risk. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 108:12337–12342

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Marshall DJ, Morgan SG (2011) Ecological and evolutionary consequences of linked life-history stages in the sea. Curr Biol 21:R718–R725

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • McQuaid CD, Phillips TE (2000) Limited wind-driven dispersal of intertidal mussel larvae: in situ evidence from the plankton and the spread of the invasive species Mytilus galloprovincialis in South Africa. Mar Ecol Progr Ser 201:211–220

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Menge BA, Chan F, Nielsen KJ, Lorenso ED, Lubchenco J (2009) Climatic variation alters supply-side ecology: impact of climate patterns on phytoplankton and mussel recruitment. Ecol Monogr 79:379–395

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Miller KJ, Maynard BT, Mundy CN (2009) Genetic diversity and gene flow in collapsed and healthy abalone fisheries. Mol Ecol 18:200–211

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Morgan SG, Fisher JL (2010) Larval behavior regulates nearshore retention and offshore migration in an upwelling shadow and along the open coast. Mar Ecol Progr Ser 404:109–126

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Morgan SG, Fisher JL, Mace AJ (2009) Larval recruitment in a region of strong, persistent upwelling and recruitment limitation. Mar Ecol Progr Ser 394:79–99

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Morgan SG, Fisher JL, McAfee ST, Largier JL, Halle CM (2012) Limited recruitment during relaxation events: larval advection and behavior in an upwelling system. Limnol Oceanogr 57:457–470

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Narváez DA, Navarrete SA, Largier J, Vargas CA (2006) Onshore advection of warm water, larval invertebrate settlement, and relaxation of upwelling off central Chile. Mar Ecol Progr Ser 309:159–173

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nickols KJ, White JW, Largier JL, Gaylord B, Associate Editor: Wolf MM, Editor: Judith LB (2015) Marine population connectivity: reconciling large-scale dispersal and high self-retention. Am Nat 185:196–211

  • Nickols KJ, Gaylord B, Largier JL (2012) The coastal boundary layer: predictable current structure decreases alongshore transport and alters scales of dispersal. Mar Ecol Progr Ser 464:17–35

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • North EW, Schlag Z, Hood RR, Li M, Zhong L, Gross T, Kennedy VS (2008) Vertical swimming behavior influences the dispersal of simulated oyster larvae in a coupled particle-tracking and hydrodynamic model of Chesapeake Bay. Mar Ecol Progr Ser 359:99

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pachepsky E, Lutscher F, Nisbet RM, Lewis MA (2005) Persistence, spread and the drift paradox. Theor Pop Biol 67:61–73

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Pacifici M, Foden WB, Visconti P, Watson JEM, Butchart SHM, Kovacs KM, Scheffers BR, Hole DG, Martin TG, Akcakaya HR, Corlett RT, Huntley B, Bickford D, Carr JA, Hoffmann AA, Midgley GF, Pearce-Kelly P, Pearson RG, Williams SE, Willis SG, Young B, Rondinini C (2015) Assessing species vulnerability to climate change. Nat Clim Change 5:215–224

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Parmesan C (2006) Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change. Ann Rev Ecol Evol Syst 37:637–669

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pechenik JA (1999) On the advantages and disadvantages of larval stages in benthic marine invertebrate life cycles. Mar Ecol Progr Ser 177:269–297

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Petes LE, Mouchka ME, Milston-Clements RH, Momoda TS, Menge BA (2008) Effects of environmental stress on intertidal mussels and their sea star predators. Oecologia 156:671–680

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pfaff MC, Branch GM, Fisher JL, Hoffmann V, Ellis AG, Largier JL (2015) Delivery of marine larvae to shore requires multiple sequential transport mechanisms. Ecology 96:1399–1410

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Phillips NE (2004) Variable timing of larval food has consequences for early juvenile performance in a marine mussel. Ecology 85:2341–2346

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pineda J, Hare JA, Sponaungle S (2007) Larval transport and dispersal in the coastal ocean and consequences for population connectivity. Oceanography 20:22–39

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pineda J, Porri F, Starczak V, Blythe J (2010) Causes of decoupling between larval supply and settlement and consequences for understanding recruitment and population connectivity. J Exp Mar Biol Ecol 392:9–21

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pörtner HO, Bennett AF, Bozinovic F, Clarke A, Lardies MA, Lucassen M, Pelster B, Schiemer F, Stillman JH (2006) Trade-offs in thermal adaptation: the need for a molecular to ecological integration. Physiol Biochem Zool 79:295–313

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Poulin E, Palma AT, Leiva G, Narvaez D, Pacheco R, Navarrete SA, Castilla JC (2002) Avoiding offshore transport of competent larvae during upwelling events: the case of the gastropod Concholepas concholepas in Central Chile. Limnol Oceanogr 47:1248–1255

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pounds JA, Fogden MP, Campbell JH (1999) Biological response to climate change on a tropical mountain. Nature 398:611–615

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Pringle JM, Blakeslee AMH, Byers JE, Roman J (2011) Asymmetric dispersal allows an upstream region to control population structure throughout a species’ range. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 108:15288–15293

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Reid JL, Schwartzlose RA (1962) Direct measurements of the Davidson Current off central California. J Geophys Res 67:2491–2497

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rey F, Silva Neto GM, Brandao C, Ramos D, Silva B, Rosa R, Queiroga H, Calado R (2016) Contrasting oceanographic conditions during larval development influence the benthic performance of a marine invertebrate with a bi-phasic life cycle. Mar Ecol Progr Ser 546:135–146

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ricciardi A, Bourget E (1999) Global patterns of macro invertebrate biomass in marine intertidal communities. Mar Ecol Progr Ser 185:21–35

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roughgarden J, Gaines S, Possingham H (1988) Recruitment dynamics in complex life cycles. Science 241:1460–1466

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Sagarin RD, Gaines SD (2002) Geographical abundance distributions of coastal invertebrates: using one-dimensional ranges to test biogeographic hypotheses. J Biogeogr 29:985–997

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sala OE, Stuart Chapin F III, Armesto JJ, Berlow E, Bloom J, Dirzo R, Huber-Sanwald E, Huenneke LF, Jackson RB, Kinzig A, Leemans R, Lodge DM, Mooney HA, Oesterheld M, Poff L, Sykes MT, Walker BH, Walker M, Wall DH (2000) Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100. Science 287:1770–1774

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Samani P, Bell G (2016) The ghosts of selection past reduces the probability of plastic rescue but increases the likelihood of evolutionary rescue to novel stressors in experimental populations of wild yeast. Ecol Lett 19:289–298

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sanford E, Kelly MW (2011) Local adaptation in marine invertebrates. Ann Rev Mar Sci 3:509–535

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Seed R (1969) The ecology of Mytilus edulis L. (Lamellibranchiata) on exposed rocky shores. Oecologia 3:277–316

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Shanks AL, Shearman RK (2009) Paradigm lost? Cross-shelf distributions of intertidal invertebrate larvae are unaffected by upwelling or downwelling. Mar Ecol Progr Ser 385:189–204

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shanks AL, Largier J, Brink L, Brubaker J, Hooff R (2000) Demonstration of the onshore transport of larval invertebrates by the shoreward movement of an upwelling front. Limnol Oceanogr 45:230–236

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shchepetkin AF, McWilliams JC (2005) The regional oceanic modeling system (ROMS): a split-explicit, free-surface, topography-following-coordinate oceanic model. Ocean Model 9:347–404

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Siedlecki SA, Banas NS, Davis KA, Giddings SN, Hickey BM, MacCready P, Connolly T, Geier S (2015) Seasonal and interannual oxygen variability on the Washington and Oregon continental shelves. J Geophys Res Oceans 120:608–633

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Snyder MA, Sloan LC, Diffenbaugh NS, Bell JL (2003) Future climate change and upwelling in the California Current. Geophys Res Lett 30:1823

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Somero GN (2010) The physiology of climate change: how potentials for acclimatization and genetic adaptation will determine ‘winners’ and ‘losers’. J Exp Biol 213:912–920

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Sorte CJB (2013) Predicting persistence in a changing climate: flow direction and limitations to redistribution. Oikos 122:161–170

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sprung M (1984) Physiological energetics of mussel larvae (Mytilus edulis). I. Shell growth and biomass. Mar Ecol Progr Ser 17:283–293

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Strub PT, Allen JS, Huyer A, Smith RL, Beardsley RC (1987) Seasonal cycles of currents, temperatures, winds, and sea level over the northeast Pacific continental shelf: 35°N to 48°N. J Geophys Res Oceans 92:1507–1526

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Suchanek TH (1981) The role of disturbance in the evolution of life history strategies in the intertidal mussels Mytilus edulis and Mytilus californianus. Oecologia 50:143–152

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sydeman WJ, García-Reyes M, Schoeman DS, Rykaczewski RR, Thompson SA, Black BA, Bograd SJ (2014) Climate change and wind intensification in coastal upwelling ecosystems. Science 345:77–80

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • R Core Team (2015) R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna. http://www.R-project.org/

  • Thomas CD, Cameron A, Green RE, Bakkenes M, Beaumont LJ, Collingham YC, Erasmus BFN, Ferreira de Siqueira M, Grainger A, Hannah L, Hughes L, Huntley B, van Jaarsveld AS, Midgley GF, Miles L, Ortega-Huerta MA, Townsend Peterson A, Phillips OL, Williams SE (2004) Extinction risk from climate change. Nature 427:145–147

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Troost K, Veldhuizen R, Stamhuis EJ, Wolff WJ (2008) Can bivalve veligers escape feeding currents of adult bivalves? J Exp Mar Biol Ecol 358:185–196

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • van Gennip SJ, Popova EE, Yool A, Pecl GT, Hobday AJ, Sorte CJB (2017) Going with the flow: the role of ocean circulation in global marine ecosystems under a changing climate. Global Change Biol. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13586

    Google Scholar 

  • Vargas CA, Narváez DA, Piñones A, Navarrete SA, Lagos NA (2006) River plume dynamic influences transport of barnacle larvae in the inner shelf off central Chile. J Mar Biol Assoc UK 86:1057–1065

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Visser AW (1997) Using random walk models to simulate the vertical distribution of particles in a turbulent water column. Mar Ecol Progr Ser 158:275–281

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Wang D, Gouhier TC, Menge BA, Ganguly AR (2015) Intensification and spatial homogenization of coastal upwelling under climate change. Nature 518:390–394

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Washburn L, McPhee-Shaw E (2013) Coastal transport processes affecting inner-shelf ecosystems in the California Current system. Oceanography 26:34–43

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Weidberg N, Porri F, Von der Meden CEO, Jackson JM, Goschen W, McQuaid CD (2015) Mechanisms of nearshore retention and offshore export of mussel larvae over the Agulhas Bank. J Mar Syst 144:70–80

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Williams PD, Hastings A (2013) Stochastic dispersal and population persistence in marine organisms. Am Nat 182:271–282

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Willmott CJ (1982) Some comments on the evaluation of model performance. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 63:1309–1313

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wing SR, Botsford LW, Largier JL, Morgan LE (1995) Spatial structure of relaxation events and crab settlement in the northern California upwelling system. Mar Ecol Progr Ser 128:199–211

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

We thank G. Bernatchez, G. McGann, L. Elsberry, M. Bracken, and F. Bracken-Sorte for their assistance with the fieldwork and tolerance limit assays. N. Banas, S. Maurel and B. Wu assisted with coding the particle tracking model. Members of the Sorte and Davis Labs gave helpful feedback on the project and manuscript. Funding was provided by the UCI Data Science Initiative (to LP) and via the Interdisciplinary Innovation Initiative (to KD and CS), with support from the UCI Henry Samueli School of Engineering, Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, and School of Biological Sciences.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Irvine, USA

    Cascade J. B. Sorte & Lauren L. M. Pandori

  2. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine, USA

    Shukai Cai & Kristen A. Davis

  3. Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, USA

    Kristen A. Davis

Authors
  1. Cascade J. B. Sorte
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Lauren L. M. Pandori
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Shukai Cai
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Kristen A. Davis
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Cascade J. B. Sorte.

Ethics declarations

Funding

This study was funded by the University of California, Irvine through the Data Science Initiative (to LP) and the Interdisciplinary Innovation Initiative (to KD and CS), with support from the UCI Henry Samueli School of Engineering, Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, and School of Biological Sciences.

Conflict of interest

All authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest.

Ethical approval

All applicable international, national, and/or institutional guidelines for the care and use of animals were followed.

Additional information

Responsible Editor: F. Bulleri.

Reviewed by N. Mieszkowska and undisclosed experts.

Electronic supplementary material

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

Supplementary material 1 (PDF 316 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Sorte, C.J.B., Pandori, L.L.M., Cai, S. et al. Predicting persistence in benthic marine species with complex life cycles: linking dispersal dynamics to redistribution potential and thermal tolerance limits. Mar Biol 165, 20 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00227-017-3269-8

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00227-017-3269-8

Search

Navigation