The risk of a recurrent fragility fracture is particularly high immediately following the fracture. This study provides adjustments to FRAX-based fracture probabilities accounting for the site of a recent fracture.
The recency of prior fractures affects subsequent fracture risk. The aim of this study was to quantify the effect of a recent sentinel fracture, by site, on the 10-year probability of fracture determined with FRAX.
The study used data from the Reykjavik Study fracture register that documented prospectively all fractures at all skeletal sites in a large sample of the population of Iceland. Fracture probabilities were determined after a sentinel fracture (humeral, clinical vertebral, forearm and hip fracture) from the hazards of death and fracture. Fracture probabilities were computed on the one hand for sentinel fractures occurring within the previous 2 years and on the other hand, probabilities for a prior osteoporotic fracture irrespective of recency. The probability ratios provided adjustments to conventional FRAX estimates of fracture probability for recent sentinel fractures.
Probability ratios to adjust 10-year FRAX probabilities of a major osteoporotic fracture for recent sentinel fractures were age dependent, decreasing with age in both men and women. Probability ratios varied according to the site of sentinel fracture with higher ratios for hip and vertebral fracture than for humerus or forearm fracture. Probability ratios to adjust 10-year FRAX probabilities of a hip fracture for recent sentinel fractures were also age dependent, decreasing with age in both men and women with the exception of forearm fractures.
The probability ratios provide adjustments to conventional FRAX estimates of fracture probability for recent sentinel fractures.
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We thank the participants in the Reykjavik Study for their valuable contribution. We are particularly grateful to the Committee of Scientific Advisors and the Committee of National Societies of the International Osteoporosis Foundation for their review, constructive comments and endorsement of this position paper.
The study was approved by the National Bioethics Committee and the Data Protection Authority in Iceland. All participants gave informed written consent.
Conflicts of interest
V Gudnason, G Sigurdsson, K Siggeirsdottir, E Liu, L Vandenput and H Johansson have no competing interests to declare.
N. Harvey has received consultancy, lecture fees and honoraria from Alliance for Better Bone Health, AMGEN, MSD, Eli Lilly, Servier, Shire, UCB, Kyowa Kirin, Consilient Healthcare, Radius Health and Internis Pharma.
EV McCloskey has received consultancy/lecture fees/grant funding/honoraria from AgNovos, Amgen, AstraZeneca, Consilient Healthcare, Fresenius Kabi, Gilead, GSK, Hologic, Internis, Lilly, Merck, Novartis, Pfizer, Radius Health, Redx Oncology, Roche, SanofiAventis, Servier, Synexus, UCB, Viiv, Warner Chilcott, I3 Innovus and Unilever.
JA Kanis reports grants from Amgen, Eli Lilly and Radius Health and consulting fees from Theramex. JAK is the architect of FRAX® but has no financial interest.
M Lorentzon has received lecture fees from Amgen, Lilly, Meda, Renapharma, and UCB Pharma and consulting fees from Amgen, Radius Health, UCB Pharma, Renapharma and Consilient Health, all outside the presented work.
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
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Kanis, J.A., Johansson, H., Harvey, N.C. et al. Adjusting conventional FRAX estimates of fracture probability according to the recency of sentinel fractures. Osteoporos Int 31, 1817–1828 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00198-020-05517-7
- Fracture probability
- FRAX adjustment
- Imminent risk
- Prior fracture
- Risk assessment
- Sentinel fracture