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Predicting the effects of estrogen replacement therapy on lumbar bone mineral density in oophorectomized women: analysis of a 10-year longitudinal study

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Abstract

The purpose of this study was to investigate whether it is possible to predict the long-term effects of estrogen replacement therapy (ERT) on lumbar bone mineral density (BMD) of oophorectomized women based on changes in BMD. In this study, we retrospectively investigated the changes in lumbar BMD of 70 oophorectomized women under ERT for more than 10 years, and examined whether it was possible in the early stage of ERT to predict the amount of lumbar BMD based on various parameters. Seventy oophorectomized Japanese women (56.8±3.9 years old) treated with conjugated equine estrogen (oral) at a dosage of 0.625 mg/day for 10 years were enrolled. Lumbar (L2–L4) BMD was measured annually by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA; CV<1.0%). The correlation between changes in BMD after 10 years on ERT (ΔBMD10) and several clinical factors was examined using a stepwise multiple regression model. The change in BMD after 1 year on ERT (%ΔBMD1) was the only independent factor that correlated with changes in BMD after 10 years on ERT; the coefficient of correlation was R 2=0.557 (R=0.750, P<0.001). Based on the %ΔBMD1, the 70 women were divided into two groups: women with a positive change in the 1st year (%ΔBMD1≧0%) in group A (n=40) and those with a negative value in the first year ( %ΔBMD1<0%) in group B (n=30). We investigated the sensitivity and specificity in the coincidence of %ΔBMD1 changes in BMD after 10 years on ERT. The %ΔBMD1 coincided with changes in BMD after 10 years on ERT; the sensitivity was 92.5% and specificity was 70.0%. In conclusion, changes in lumbar BMD on ERT can be predicted from the changes in lumbar BMD at the end of the 1st year.

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Acknowledgements

The authors thank Hiromasa Horiguchi (Department of Health Services Management and Policy, Division of Medical Sciences, Graduate School of Medicine, Kyushu University) for his help in the statistical analysis.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Graduate School of Medical Sciences, Kyushu University, Maidashi 3-1-1, 812–8582, Higashi-ku, Fukuoka, Japan

    Hideaki Nagata, Masahiro Nozaki & Hitoo Nakano

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  1. Hideaki Nagata
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  2. Masahiro Nozaki
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  3. Hitoo Nakano
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Correspondence to Masahiro Nozaki.

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Nagata, H., Nozaki, M. & Nakano, H. Predicting the effects of estrogen replacement therapy on lumbar bone mineral density in oophorectomized women: analysis of a 10-year longitudinal study. Osteoporos Int 14, 905–912 (2003). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00198-003-1447-7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00198-003-1447-7

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