Modeling and forecast of the polar motion excitation functions for short-term polar motion prediction

Abstract.

Short-term forecast of the polar motion is considered by introducing a prediction model for the excitation function that drives the polar motion dynamics. The excitation function model consists of a slowly varying trend, periodic modes with annual and several sub-annual frequencies (down to the 13.6-day fortnightly tidal period), and a transient decay function with a time constant of 1.5 days. Each periodic mode is stochastically specified using a second-order auto-regression process, allowing its frequency, phase, and amplitude to vary in time within a statistical tolerance. The model is used to time-extrapolate the excitation function series, which is then used to generate a polar motion forecast dynamically. The skills of this forecast method are evaluated by comparison to the C-04 polar motion series. Over the lead-time horizon of four months, the proposed method has performed equally well to some of the state-of-art polar motion prediction methods, none of which specifically features forecasting of the excitation function. The annual mode in the χ₂ component is energetically the most dominant periodicity. The modes with longer periods, annual and semi-annual in particular, are found to contribute more significantly to forecast accuracy than those with shorter periods.