Abstract.
Out-of-sample employment forecasts for 33 U.S. industries which are likely to be sensitive to the federal minimum wage are, more often than not, more accurate when information about the minimum wage is not taken into account. This is true even in instances where this information improves wage forecasts. When employment forecasts conditional on the minimum wage are better, the improvement is typically small. These results are invariant to the number of workers previously making less than the new minimum wage, and to the value of the minimum wage relative to industry average wages.
Similar content being viewed by others
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Additional information
First version received: August 1999/Final version received: July 2000
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Wolfson, P., Belman, D. The minimum wage, employment, and the AS-IF methodology: A forecasting approach to evaluating the minimum wage. Empirical Economics 26, 487–514 (2001). https://doi.org/10.1007/s001810000067
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s001810000067