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Identifying shocks to business cycles with asynchronous propagation

Empirical Economics volume 58, pages 1815–1836 (2020)Cite this article

Abstract

This paper develops a methodology to investigate which shocks drive asynchrony of business cycles. It unites two strands of literature, those on common features and on structural VAR analysis. In particular, a lack of a common cycle between two GDPs can be traced back to at least one shock with non-collinear structural impulse responses. We apply a Wald test to the collinearity hypothesis. Empirical results on the eurozone reveal that differences in the business cycles in several peripheral countries compared to a eurozone core are triggered mainly by local shocks. Depending on the country, real or nominal shocks turn out to play a more important role.

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Notes

  1. It may be disputable to include Italy given the current situation of the public finances and their perception in the financial markets in recent years. However, Italy does not deviate from the pattern of a common cycle with Germany. This also applies to the other four countries according to LR tests on a common cycle. Thus, we can empirically confirm the findings of Carvalho and Harvey (2005).

  2. The same qualitative results are obtained when conducting the LR test for common cycles in bivariate systems only consisting of \(y_{\mathrm{core},t}\) and \(y_{\mathrm{pc},t}\).

  3. Koopman and Azevedo (2008) and Luginbuhl and Koopman (2004) find some evidence for convergence of the Spanish business cycle towards the eurozone and the German business cycles, respectively, by the end of 2000.

  4. Of course, this theoretical framework is not meant to provide a realistic description of the economy, but rather to fix ideas on the broad interpretation of our empirical results. By the same token, the terms “demand” and “nominal” as well as “supply” and “real” are used synonymously, even if they are not necessarily identical with regard to more detailed models.

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Acknowledgements

We are grateful to the participants of the economics research seminar at the Westfälische Wilhelms-Universität Münster. The research was supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) through the SFB 884 “Political Economy of Reforms”. Part of the research was done while the first author was visiting the Humboldt Universität zu Berlin. He thanks the Humboldt Universität for its hospitality.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. University of Mannheim, L7, 3-5, 68131, Mannheim, Germany

    Carsten Trenkler

  2. Institute of Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany

    Carsten Trenkler & Enzo Weber

  3. Department of Economics and Econometrics, University of Regensburg, 93040, Regensburg, Germany

    Enzo Weber

Authors
  1. Carsten Trenkler
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  2. Enzo Weber
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Correspondence to Carsten Trenkler.

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Both authors, Carsten Trenkler and Enzo Weber, declare that they have no conflict of interest.

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Trenkler, C., Weber, E. Identifying shocks to business cycles with asynchronous propagation. Empir Econ 58, 1815–1836 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-018-1563-z

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-018-1563-z

Keywords

  • Common cycles
  • Eurozone
  • Impulse responses
  • Structural VAR
  • Wald test

JEL Classification

  • C32
  • E32