Empirical Economics

, Volume 56, Issue 1, pp 325–340 | Cite as

Effects of economic variables on NPLs depending on the economic cycle

  • Salvador Climent-SerranoEmail author


Late payments are a major problem for Spanish banks. This paper studies as determinants of loan delinquency: unemployment, interest rates, inflation, housing prices, leverage, bad debt coverage and solvency, which were the main problems facing the Spanish economy between 2004 and 2015, and also examines these determinants in periods of growth and recession. The results show that the price of housing, bad debt coverage, interest rates and solvency are the variables with the greatest impact on NPLs. Furthermore, differences exist in the behaviour of variables during periods of growth compared with periods of recession. Inertia of the dependent variable has also been detected.


Loan default Banks Unemployment Leverage Housing prices 

JEL Classification

G21 M41 


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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Financial and Actuarial Economics, Faculty of EconomicsUniversity of ValenciaValenciaSpain

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