Empirical Economics

, Volume 54, Issue 3, pp 1335–1351 | Cite as

A dual theory approach to estimating risk preferences in the parimutuel betting market

  • Niko Suhonen
  • Jani Saastamoinen
  • Mika Linden


This paper introduces an alternative empirical approach to estimating risk preferences in the parimutuel betting market using a dual theory model which is amended to include bettors’ misperceptions of probabilities. We replicate previous empirical results and test our alternative empirical approach using parimutuel horse race betting data. Our results suggest that while bettors are risk-averse, they are also prone to misperceiving probabilities by overweighting low probabilities and underweighting high probabilities. As an application, these results replicate the choice patterns consistent with the Allais paradox.


Allais paradox Dual theory Probability weighting function Rank-dependent utility 

JEL Classification

D81 L83 



The authors wish to thank Thomas Epper, Helga Fehr-Duda, David Forrest, Timo Kuosmanen, Timo Tammi, Hannu Vartiainen, Horst Zank and the two anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments and suggestions. This research was supported by Emil Aaltonen Foundation, the Finnish Foundation for Alcohol Studies and the Finnish Foundation for Gaming Research.

Compliance with ethical standards

Conflicts of interest

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.


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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.University of Eastern Finland Business SchoolJoensuuFinland
  2. 2.Department of Social and Health ManagementUniversity of Eastern FinlandJoensuuFinland

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