Empirical Economics

, Volume 49, Issue 2, pp 389–402

An analysis of the trade balance for OECD countries using periodic integration and cointegration

  • Tomas del Barrio Castro
  • Mariam Camarero
  • Cecilio Tamarit

DOI: 10.1007/s00181-014-0874-y

Cite this article as:
del Barrio Castro, T., Camarero, M. & Tamarit, C. Empir Econ (2015) 49: 389. doi:10.1007/s00181-014-0874-y


We analyze imbalances in external accounts that have historically affected most developed countries. The purpose of this study was to shed some light on the sustainability of the current account for a group of OECD countries by merging the popular Husted (Rev Econ Stat 74(1):159–166, 1992) testing procedure with recent econometric analysis dealing with seasonality. A necessary condition for current account sustainability is that exports and imports are cointegrated. Following previous empirical studies (Husted 1992; Arize in Int Rev Econ Financ 11:101–115, 2002; Hamori in Appl Econ Lett 16:1691–1694, 2009), we analyze the long-run relationship linking exports and imports, using quarterly data. In contrast to these studies, we explicitly deal with seasonal effects through the use of periodic integration and cointegration and find a long-run relationship for the majority of the countries.


Current account Time series Periodic integration  Periodic cointegration 

JEL Classification

F14 F32 C22 

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014

Authors and Affiliations

  • Tomas del Barrio Castro
    • 1
  • Mariam Camarero
    • 2
  • Cecilio Tamarit
    • 3
  1. 1.University of The Balearic IslandsPalmaSpain
  2. 2.University Jaume ICastellón de la PlanaSpain
  3. 3.University of ValenciaValenciaSpain

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