Empirical Economics

, Volume 46, Issue 1, pp 19–41 | Cite as

The dynamics of international trade integration: 1967–2004

  • Iván Arribas
  • Francisco Pérez
  • Emili Tortosa-AusinaEmail author


This article explores how trade integration has advanced over the last four decades and what the foreseeable future holds, among other related questions. To this end, we consider certain methods which have scarcely been used in the literature on trade integration. First, we measure trade integration through a set of indicators which control not only for how open economies are, but also for their degrees of connectedness in the World Trade Web. Second, we assess how these indicators have evolved over time, what the likely steady state distribution might be, and whether results could differ depending on a variety of weighting schemes (GDP, population). The results show that, under current trends, future world trade will be much more trade-integrated, especially for the most heavily populated countries. However, there is still a long way to go before reaching the hypothetical scenario of geographically neutral trade.


Distribution dynamics Geographic neutrality Trade integration 



The authors thank Salvador Gil-Pareja, Chris Milner, Francisco Requena and Cecilio Tamarit for their insights, as well as three anonymous referees for their constructive criticism. This paper is a result of the BBVA Foundation-Ivie Research Program. All authors acknowledge financial support from the Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (ECO2011-23248, ECO2011-27227 and ECO2010-20584) and the Generalitat Valenciana (PROMETEO/2009/066 and PROMETEO/2009/068).


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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  • Iván Arribas
    • 1
    • 2
    • 3
  • Francisco Pérez
    • 2
    • 3
  • Emili Tortosa-Ausina
    • 3
    • 4
    Email author
  1. 1.ERI-CESUniversitat de ValènciaValènciaSpain
  2. 2.Departament d‘Anàlisi EconòmicaUniversitat de ValènciaValènciaSpain
  3. 3.IvieValènciaSpain
  4. 4.Departament d’EconomiaUniversitat Jaume ICastelló de la PlanaSpain

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