Abstract
The global financial turmoil has led to an unprecedented current account adjustment in central and eastern Europe. This article investigates this issue by revisiting two approaches. The first is the current account literature based on panel econometric techniques. This article adds to the literature by showing that, although there is a large degree of parameter uncertainty associated with the choice of determinants, the implied current account benchmarks for central and eastern Europe are in a narrow range. The second approach is the external sustainability framework where we extend the analysis to take into account the importance of FDI financing. We find that both approaches point to similar conclusions on which countries were in need of a current account adjustment in central and eastern Europe in 2007. The turmoil in financial markets in 2008 set this adjustment in motion.
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Ca’ Zorzi, M., Chudik, A. & Dieppe, A. And then current accounts (over)adjusted. Empir Econ 43, 245–270 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-011-0476-x
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-011-0476-x
Keywords
- Current account
- Financial flows
- Central and eastern Europe
- Panel data
- Model uncertainty
- External sustainability