Energy dependence, oil prices and exchange rates: the Dominican economy since 1990

Abstract

This paper studies the impact that oil prices have had on the floating exchange rate (ER) of the Dominican peso during the 1990–2008 period. The existing empirical literature has documented a link between these two variables for large developed economies and oil-producing countries, always including the 1970s oil crises in their sample periods. Few authors analyze the case of small open economies dependent on oil imports. Since the acceleration of economic growth in the Dominican Republic during the last decade has greatly increased its degree of external energy dependence, this country’s experience presents an ideal case study. We estimate the influence that changes in international gasoline prices have on the real exchange rate between the Dominican peso and the United States dollar. The cointegrated nature of the gasoline price and ER time series are tested and a vector error correction model is developed. Our results indicate that a 10% rise in the price of gas coincides with a 1.2% depreciation of the peso in the long run and that the causality runs from gas prices to the peso.