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Real estate bubble and urban population density: six Spanish metropolitan areas 2001–2011

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Abstract

After a period of exorbitant growth in building sector, it is appropriate to measure the impact it has had on the spatial structure of the main Spanish metropolitan areas. Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia, Sevilla, Bilbao and Zaragoza are surveyed, and two periods are compared: 2001 and 2011. The main driving factor behind the evolution of urban density is the huge and fast arrival and settlement of immigrants. This article explores these transformations through exploratory spatial data analysis and classic econometric models that relate urban density with distance to central business district. The presence of spatial effects is tested: spatial lag and error models are considered. Spatial error models are estimated. Two main consequences of real state bubble are as follows: (1) spatial autocorrelation has grown and (2) in Madrid, Barcelona and Zaragoza central areas with high urban density are larger than before. From a methodological point of view, the introduction of spatial effects in the classical urban population density models implies a clear reduction in the explaining power of distance.

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Acknowledgments

The authors gratefully thank Jordi Suriñach for his valuable suggestions on previous drafts of the paper. Angels Pinyana proof read fruitfully the paper. We also thank the Data Analysis and Modelling research group for the fruitful discussions we held together. This research was partially supported by Grant MTM2012-38067-C02 from the Ministerio de Economa y Competitividad. We would like to thank the two reviewers for very helpful improvement suggestions.

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  1. Departament d’Economia i Empresa, Universitat de Vic – Universitat Central de Catalunya, Vic, Barcelona, Spain

    Joan Carles Martori, Rafa Madariaga & Ramon Oller

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  1. Joan Carles Martori
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  2. Rafa Madariaga
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  3. Ramon Oller
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Correspondence to Joan Carles Martori.

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Martori, J.C., Madariaga, R. & Oller, R. Real estate bubble and urban population density: six Spanish metropolitan areas 2001–2011. Ann Reg Sci 56, 369–392 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-016-0743-z

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-016-0743-z

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