Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Integrating the fragmented regional and subregional socioeconomic forecasting and analysis: a spatial regional econometric input–output framework

  • Special Issue paper
  • Published:
The Annals of Regional Science Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This study presents an integrated socioeconomic forecasting and analysis framework: a spatial regional econometric input–output model and its application to the Chicago metropolitan area. The new framework is designed to overcome some limitations of existing models, particularly (1) limited consideration of population–employment interactions and (2) dominance of top-down approach to vertical integration of regional and subregional variables. It captures local and lower level conditions and their effects on macroeconomic variables by using a modified disequilibrium adjustment model that incorporates subregional dynamics into a regional econometric input–output model in a reciprocal, interactive manner, as opposed to a top-down allocation process. The framework also considers both region-wide and subregional level population–employment interactions more systematically. It is demonstrated that the present model can support socioeconomic forecasting and a broad range of analyses, including the examinations of the macroeconomic impacts of local actions.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Boarnet MG (1994) An empirical model of intrametropolitan population and employment growth. Papers Reg Sci 73: 135–152

    Google Scholar 

  • Boarnet MG (1994) The monocentric model and employment location. J Urban Econ 36: 79–97

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Boarnet MG, Chalermpong S, Geho E (2005) Specification issues in models of population and employment growth. Papers Reg Sci 84: 21–46

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bollinger C, Ihlanfeldt KR (1997) The impact of rapid rail transit on economic development: the case of Atlanta’s MARTA. J Urban Econ 42: 179–204

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Carlino GA, Mills ES (1987) The determinants of county growth. J Reg Sci 27: 39–54

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Carruthers JI, Hollar MK, Mulligan GF (2008) Growth and convergence in the space economy: evidence from the United States. Region Dev 27: 35–60

    Google Scholar 

  • Carruthers JI, Mulligan GF (2007) Land absorption in US metropolitan areas: estimates and projections from regional adjustment models. Geogr Anal 39: 78–104

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cervero R (2001) Efficient urbanisation: economic performance and the shape of the metropolis. Urban Stud 38: 1651–1671

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chalmers JA, Greenwood MJ (1985) The regional labor market adjustment process: Determinants of changes in rates of labor force participation, unemployment, and migration. Ann Reg Sci 19: 1–17

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Clark DE, Murphy CP (1996) Countywide employment and population growth: an analysis of the 1980s. J Reg Sci 36: 235–256

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Conway RS Jr (1990) The Washington projection and simulation model: a regional inter-industry econometric model. Int Reg Sci Rev 13: 141–166

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Feser E, Isserman A (2005) Urban spillovers and rural prosperity. http://www.urban.uiuc.edu/faculty/feser/Pubs/Urban_spillovers_and_rural_prosperity.pdf Accessed October 2008

  • Greenwood MJ (1985) Human migration: theory, models, and empirical studies. J Reg Sci 25: 521–544

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gyourko J, Saiz A, Summers A (2008) A new measure of the local regulatory environment for housing markets: the Wharton residential land use regulatory index. Urban Stud 45: 693–729

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Henry MS, Barkley DL, Bao S (1997) The hinterland’s state in metropolitan growth: evidence from selected southern regions. J Reg Sci 37: 479–501

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Henry MS, Schmitt B, Piguet V (2001) Spatial econometric models for simultaneous systems: application to rural community growth in France. Int Reg Sci Rev 24: 171–193

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hewings GJD, Sonis M, Guo J, Israilevich PR, Schindler GR (1998) The hollowing out process in the Chicago economy, 1975–2015. Geogr Anal 30: 217–233

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hunt JD, Kriger DS, Miller EJ (2005) Current operational urban land use—transport modelling frameworks: a review. Transp Rev 25: 329–376

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Israilevich PR, Hewings GJD, Schindler GR, Mahidhara R (1996) The choice of input–output table embedded in regional econometric input–output models. Papers Reg Sci 75: 103–119

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Israilevich PR, Hewings GJD, Sonis M, Schindler GR (1997) Forecasting structural change with regional econometric input–output model. J Reg Sci 37: 565–590

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kelejian HH, Prucha IR (1998) A generalized spatial two-stage least squares procedure for estimating a spatial autoregressive model with autoregressive disturbances. J Real Estate Finance Econ 17: 99–121

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kelejian HH, Prucha IR (1999) A generalized moments estimator for the autoregressive parameter in a spatial model. Int Econ Rev 40: 509–533

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kelejian HH, RobinsonDP (1993) Asuggested method of estimation for spatial interdependent models with autocorrelated errors, and an application to a county expenditure model. Papers Reg Sci 72:297–312

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kim JH (2011) Linking land use planning and regulation to economic development: a literature review. J Plan Lit 26:35–47

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kim JH, Hewings GJD (2011) Framing urban systems and planning concerns as a multi-level problem: a review of the integrated urban system models with an emphasis on their hierarchical structures. In: Brooks N, Donaghy K, Knaap G (eds) Oxford University Press Handbook of Urban Economics and Planning. Oxford University Press, New York, pp 674–700

  • Levemier W, Cushing B (1994) A new look at the determinants of the intrametropolitan distribution of population and employment. Urban Stud 31: 1391–1405

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mulligan GF, Vias AC (2006) Growth and change in US micropolitan areas. Ann Reg Sci 40: 203–228

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mulligan GF, Vias AC, Glavac SM (1999) Initial diagnostics of a regional adjustment model. Environ Plan A 31: 855–876

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nelson AC, Peterman DR (2000) Does growth management matter? The effect of growth management on economic performance. J Plan Educ Res 19: 277–285

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Parr JB (1979) Regional economic change and regional spatial structure: some interrelation-ships. Environ Plan A 11: 825–837

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Parr JB (1987) The development of spatial structure and regional economic growth. Land Econ 63: 113–127

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rey SJ (1998) The performance of alternative integration strategies for combining regional econometric and input–output models. Int Reg Sci Rev 21: 1–35

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rey SJ (2000) Integrated regional econometric + input–output modeling: issues and opportunities. Papers Reg Sci 79: 271–292

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rey SJ, Boarnet MG (2004) A taxonomy of spatial econometric models for simultaneous equations systems. In: Anselin L, Florax R, Rey SJ (eds) Advances in spatial econometrics: methodology, tools, and applications. Springer, Berlin, pp 99–119

    Google Scholar 

  • Schindler GR, Israilevich PR, Hewings GJD (1997) Regional economic performance: an integrated approach. Reg Stud 31: 131–137

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Steinnes DN (1977) Causality and intraurban location. J Urban Econ 4: 69–79

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Steinnes DN (1982) Do ‘people follow jobs’ or do ‘jobs follow people’? A causality issue in urban economics. Urban Stud 19: 187–192

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Treyz GI (1995) Policy analysis applications of REMI economic forecasting and simulation models. Int J Public Adm 18: 13–42

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vermeulen W, Ommeren J (2004) Interaction of regional population and employment: identifying short-run and equilibrium adjustment effects. Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper, TI 2004-083/3. http://dspace.ubvu.vu.nl/bitstream/1871/9620/1/04083.pdf Accessed September 2009

  • Vermeulen W, Ommeren J (2009) Does land use planning shape regional economies? A simultaneous analysis of housing supply, internal migration and local employment growth in the Netherlands. J Hous Econ 18: 294–310

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vias AC (1999) Jobs follow people in the rural Rocky Mountain West. Rural Dev Perspect 14: 14–23

    Google Scholar 

  • Vias AC, Mulligan GF (1999) Integrating economic base theory with regional adjustment models: the nonmetropolitan Rocky Mountain West. Growth Change 30: 507–525

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wegener M (1994) Operational urban models: state of the art. J Am Plan Assoc 60: 17–29

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • West GR (1995) Comparison of input–output, input–output+econometric, and computable general equilibrium impact models at the regional level. Econ Syst Res 7: 209–227

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • West GR, Jackson RW (1998) Input–output + econometric and econometric + input–output: Model differences or different models?. J Reg Anal Policy 28: 33–48

    Google Scholar 

  • White R, Engelen G (2000) High-resolution integrated modelling of the spatial dynamics of urban and regional systems. Comput Environ Urban Syst 24: 383–400

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zellner A, Tobias J (2000) A note on aggregation, disaggregation and forecasting performance. J Forecast 19: 457–469

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Landscape Architecture/Regional and Community Planning, Kansas State University, 303I Seaton Hall, Manhattan, KS, 66506, USA

    Jae Hong Kim

  2. Department of Economics, Geography, Government and Public Affairs, Urban and Regional Planning, Regional Economics Applications Laboratory, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 607S. Matthews, Urbana, IL, 61801, USA

    Geoffrey J. D. Hewings

Authors
  1. Jae Hong Kim
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Geoffrey J. D. Hewings
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Jae Hong Kim.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Kim, J.H., Hewings, G.J.D. Integrating the fragmented regional and subregional socioeconomic forecasting and analysis: a spatial regional econometric input–output framework. Ann Reg Sci 49, 485–513 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-011-0468-y

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-011-0468-y

JEL Classification

Search

Navigation