Abstract
In the evaluation of transportation infrastructure projects, some non-tradable goods such as time are usually key determinants of the result. However, obtaining monetary values for these goods is not always easy. For this purpose, this paper presents an approach that combines Bayesian posterior prediction and meta-analysis. This methodology will allow obtaining predictive distributions of the monetary values for this type of goods. Therefore, uncertainty is formally considered in the analysis. Moreover, the proposed method is easy to apply and inexpensive both in terms of time and money. Finally, an illustrative application to the value of travel time savings is also presented.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Campos J, de Rus G, Barron I (2007) Some stylized facts about high speed rail. A review of HSR experiences around the world (unpublished)
de Rus G (2008) Analisis Coste-Beneficio. Ariel Economia
Diebold F, Gunther T, Tay A (1998) Evaluating density forecasts with applications to financial risk management. Int Econ Rev 39: 863–883
Diebold F, Lopez J (1996) Forecast evaluation and combination. In: Handbook of statistics, pp 241–268
Hunter J, Schmidt F (2004) Methods of meta-analysis: correcting error and bias in research findings. SAGE, London
Johnson S, Larson W, Papageorgiou C, Subramanian A (2009) Is newer better? Penn World Table revision and their impact on growth estimates. NBER Working Paper No. 15455
Koop G (2003) Bayesian econometrics. Wiley, New York
Lancaster T (2004) An introduction to modern Bayesian econometrics. Blackwell, Oxford
Layard, R, Glaister, S (eds) (1994) Cost-benefit analysis. Cambridge University Press, London
Miller T (2000) Variations between countries in values of statistical life. J Trans Econ Policy 34(2): 169–188
Nellthorp J, Sansom T, Bickel P, Doll C, Lindberg G (2001) Valuation conventions for UNITE. Technical report, UNITE (UNIfication of accounts and marginal costs for Transport Efficiency)
Rosenblatt M (1952) Remarks on multivariate transformation. Ann Math Stat 23: 470–472
Viscusi W, Aldy J (2003) The value of a statistical life: a critical review of market estimates throughout the world. NBER Working Papers No. 9487
Zamparini L, Reggiani A (2007) Meta-analysis and the value of travel time savings: a transatlantic perspective in passenger transport. Netw Spatial Econ 7: 377–396
Zamparini L, Reggiani A (2007) The value of travel time in passenger and freight transport: an overview. In: Geenhuizen M, Reggiani A, Rietveld P (eds) Policy analysis of transport networks, chap 8. Ashgate, Aldershot, pp 145–161
Zellner A (1971) An introduction to Bayesian inference in econometrics. Wiley, New York
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Moral-Benito, E. Bayesian posterior prediction and meta-analysis: an application to the value of travel time savings. Ann Reg Sci 48, 801–817 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-010-0407-3
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-010-0407-3