Convergence and transition auspice of Chinese regional growth

Abstract.

This paper reconsiders the question of regional convergence in China. Barro’s convergence model and Theil’s regional inequality index are applied in the study. Analytical results reject the absolute convergence hypothesis in the Chinese case, but suggest a conditional convergence pattern. As for China as one system, it is further discovered that there exists a complex phenomenon that the three regions, the east, the mid and the west, converge to different equilibria respectively. Therefore, the mid and the west break through the existing system structure to reach the high level like that of the east is a crucial task of Chinese economic development. A detailed inversed U-shape analysis leads to two important findings. First, it discovers that the regional disparities between the east region and the rest of China are widening, while the regional disparity between the mid and the west is shrinking. Second, the Chinese regional economy has reached the critical point of divergence-convergence transition in terms of stages of national economic development according to Williamson’s theoretical model. This gives the state government some room for doing something to make the convergence happen at an early possible time.