Population age structure and consumption growth: evidence from National Transfer Accounts
We assess the effects of the population age structure and the population dynamics on economic growth. Following recent research, we focus on the generational turnover effect to characterize the influence of birth and death rates, depending on the age profile of individual consumption, the extent of annuity market imperfections, and the willingness of households to shift consumption over time. Using data from the National Transfer Accounts on age profiles of consumption for a number of different countries, we assess—in a comparative way—the sign and the magnitude of the generational turnover effect and its impact on economic growth. We find considerable cross-country differences and trace them back to the underlying variation in demography and in the age structure of consumption.
KeywordsDemography Economic growth Generational turnover Age structure of consumption National Transfer Accounts
JEL ClassificationE21 J11 O40
We would like to thank two anonymous referees, Alessandro Cigno, Bernhard Hammer, Dirk Krueger, Alexia Prskawetz, and Miguel Sánchez-Romero for valuable comments and suggestions.
Compliance with ethical standards
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
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