Journal of Population Economics

, Volume 30, Issue 2, pp 433–472 | Cite as

The impact of extreme weather events on education

Original Paper

Abstract

This paper provides new evidence on the long- and medium-term impact of extreme weather events on education. Our focus is on Mongolia, where two extremely severe winters caused mass livestock mortality. We use household panel data with information on households’ preshock location, combined with historic district-level livestock census data and climate data. Our econometric strategy exploits exogenous variation in shock intensity across space and time, using a difference-in-differences approach. Results indicate that individuals who experience the shock while of schooling age and living in severely affected districts are significantly less likely to complete mandatory education, both in the long and medium terms. The effects are driven by individuals from herding households, while no significant effects are found for individuals from nonherding households. This finding renders it unlikely that extreme winters affect education through school closures during extreme climatic conditions, to which all children were exposed. Moreover, there is no evidence for a differential impact of extreme weather events by gender. This suggests that the effects are not mainly channeled through increased child labor in herding but rather they are related to reductions in household income.

Keywords

Children Education Extreme weather events Mongolia 

JEL Classification

I25 Q54 O12 

References

  1. Alderman H, Hoddinott J, Kinsey B (2006) Long term consequences of early childhood malnutrition. Oxf Econ Pap 58(3):450–474CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Baez JE, de la Fuente A, Santos I (2010) Do natural disasters affect human capital? An assessment based on existing empirical evidence. IZA Discussion Papers 5164Google Scholar
  3. Barro R, Lee J-W (2013) A new data set of educational attainment in the world, 1950–2010. J Dev Econ 104(C):184–198CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Batima P (2006) Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the livestock sector of mongolia. International Start Secretariat, WashingtonGoogle Scholar
  5. Björkman-Nyqvist M (2013) Income shocks and gender gaps in education: evidence from Uganda. J Dev Econ 105:237–253. doi:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2013.07.013 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Cunha F, Heckman J (2007) The technology of skill formation. Am Econ Rev 97(2):31–47. doi:10.1257/aer.97.2.31 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Dairii A, Suruga T (2006) Economic returns to schooling in transition: a case of Mongolia. GSICS Working Paper Series 9Google Scholar
  8. De Vreyer P, Guilbert N, Mesple-Somps S (2015) Impact of natural disasters on education outcomes: evidence from the 1987–89 locust plague in Mali. J Afr Econ 24(1):57–100CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Deuchert E, Felfe C (2015) The tempest: short- and long-term consequences of a natural disaster for children’s development. Eur Econ Rev 80:280–294. doi:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2015.09.004 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Engel J, Prizzon A (2014) From decline to recovery: post-primary education in Mongolia. Overseas Development Institute, LondonGoogle Scholar
  11. European Commission (2010) Commission decision on the financing of humanitarian actions in Mongolia from the general budget of the European Union (ECHO/MNG/BUD/2010/01000). European Commission, BrusselsGoogle Scholar
  12. Fernandez-Gimenez ME (1999) Sustaining the steppes: a geographical history of pastoral land use in Mongolia. Geogr Rev 89(3):315–342CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Goodman J (2014) Flaking out: student absences and snow days as disruptions of instructional time. NBER Working Paper 20221Google Scholar
  14. Groppo V, Kraehnert K (2016) Extreme weather events and child height: evidence from Mongolia. World Dev 86:59–78CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Guarcello L, Mealli F, Rosati FC (2010) Household vulnerability and child labor: the effect of shocks, credit rationing, and insurance. J Popul Econ 23(1):169–198. doi:10.1007/s00148-008-0233-4 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Hansen B (2011) School year length and student performance: quasi-experimental evidence. Unpublished manuscript, University of OregonGoogle Scholar
  17. Horton S, Steckel RH (2013) Malnutrition: global economic losses attributable to malnutrition 1900–2000 and projections to 2050. In: Lomborg B (ed) How much have global problems cost the world? A scorecard from 1900 to 2050. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 247–272CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), Mongolian Red Cross Society (MRCS) (2010) Rapid assessment of dzud situation in Mongolia (January 18–January 26, 2010): summary report. IFRC and MRCS, Ulan BatorGoogle Scholar
  19. Jacoby HG, Skoufias E (1997) Risk, financial markets, and human capital in a developing country. Rev Econ Stud 64(3):311–335CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Jensen R (2000) Agricultural volatility and investments in children. Am Econ Rev Pap Proc 90(2):399–404CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Justino P, Leone M, Salardi P (2014) Short- and long-term impact of violence on education: the case of Timor Leste. World Bank Econ Rev 28(2):320–353. doi:10.1093/wber/lht007 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Lawrie J, Dandii O (2010) Report on the 2009–10 dzud disaster impact on schools, kindergartens, children and teachers in Mongolia. Save the Children Japan, UlaanbaatarGoogle Scholar
  23. León G (2012) Civil conflict and human capital accumulation: the long-term effects of political violence in Peru. J Hum Resour 47(4):991–1021Google Scholar
  24. Maccini S, Yang D (2009) Under the weather: health, schooling, and economic consequences of early-life rainfall. Am Econ Rev 99(3):1006–1026CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Marcotte DE (2007) Schooling and test scores: a mother-natural experiment. Econ Educ Rev 26(5):629–640CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Marcotte DE, Hemelt SW (2008) Unscheduled school closings and student performance. Educ Finan Policy 3(3):316–338CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Middleton N, Rueff H, Sternberg T, Batbuyan B, Thomas D (2015) Explaining spatial variations in climate hazard impacts in western Mongolia. Landsc Ecol 30:91–107CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Miller RT, Murnane RJ, Willett JB (2008) Do teacher absences impact student achievement? Longitudinal evidence from one urban school district. Educ Evavl Policy Anal 30(2):181–200CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Ministry of Education Culture and Science of Mongolia (2006) Master plan to develop education of Mongolia in 2006–2015. Government of Mongolia, UlaanbaatarGoogle Scholar
  30. Murphy DJ (2011) Going on Otor: disaster, mobility, and the political ecology of vulnerability in Uguumur, Mongolia. PhD dissertation, University of KentuckyGoogle Scholar
  31. Murray V et al (2012) Case studies. In: Field CB, Barros V, Stocker TF, Qin D, Dokken DJ, Ebi KL, Mastrandrea MD, Mach KJ, Plattner G-K, Allen SK, Tignor M, Midgley PM (eds) Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation: a special report of working groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 487–542CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. National Statistical Office of Mongolia (2003) Mongolian national statistical yearbook 2002. NSO, UlaanbaatarGoogle Scholar
  33. National Statistical Office of Mongolia (2013) Mongolian statistical yearbook 2012. NSO, UlaanbaatarGoogle Scholar
  34. National Statistics Office, UNICEF (2011) Multiple indicator cluster survey 2010: summary report. National Statistics Office, Ulan BatorGoogle Scholar
  35. Palat Rao M et al (2015) Dzuds, droughts, and livestock mortality in Mongolia. Environ Res Lett 10:1–12. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/7/074012 Google Scholar
  36. Pastore F (2010) Returns to education of young people in Mongolia. Post-Communist Econ 22(2):247–265CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Rosales MF (2014) Impact of early life shocks on human capital formation: El Niño floods in Ecuador. IDB Working Paper Series 503Google Scholar
  38. Rouse JW, Haas RH, Scheel JA, Deering DW (1974) Monitoring vegetation systems in the Great Plains with ERTS. In: Freden SC, Mercanti EP, Becker MA (eds) Third earth resources technology satellite-1 symposium-volume: I technical presentations. NASA, Washington, pp 309–317Google Scholar
  39. Seneviratne SI et al (2012) Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment. In: Field CB, Barros V, Stocker TF, Qin D, Dokken DJ, Ebi KL, Mastrandrea MD, Mach KJ, Plattner G-K, Allen SK, Tignor M, Midgley PM (eds) Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation: a special report of working groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 109–230CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Shah M, Steinberg BM (2017) Drought of opportunities: contemporaneous and long term impacts of rainfall shocks on human capital. J Polit Econ (forthcoming)Google Scholar
  41. Shemyakina O (2011) The effect of armed conflict on accumulation of education: results from Tajikistan. J Dev Econ 95(2):186–200CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Shinoda M, Nandintsetseg B (eds) (2015) Climate change and hazards in Mongolia. Nagoya University, NagoyaGoogle Scholar
  43. Skees J, Enkh-Amgalan A (2002) Examining the feasibility of livestock insurance in Mongolia. World Bank Policy Research Paper 2886Google Scholar
  44. Steiner-Khamsi G (2007) Mongolia country case study: country profile commissioned for the EFA global monitoring report 2008, education for all by 2015—will we make it? UNESCO, ParisGoogle Scholar
  45. Sternberg T (2010) Unravelling Mongolia’s extreme winter disaster of 2010. Nomadic Peoples 14(1):72–86CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Tachiiri K, Shinoda M, Klinkenberg B, Morinaga Y (2008) Assessing Mongolian snow disaster risk using livestock and satellite data. J Arid Environ 72(12):2251–2263CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Townsend RM (1994) Risk and insurance in village India. Econometrica 62(3):539–591CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Udry C (1994) Risk and insurance in a rural credit market: an empirical investigation in northern Nigeria. Rev Econ Stud 61(3):495–526CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. UNDP, National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) (2010) Dzud national report 2009–2010. UNDP and NEMA, UlaanbaatarGoogle Scholar
  50. United Nations (2000) Mongolia: United Nations Inter-Agency appeal for Mongolia “DZUD 2000”—an evolving disaster. UN Disaster Management Team, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  51. United Nations Mongolia Country Team (2010a) Mongolia 2010: dzud appeal. United Nations, Ulan BatorGoogle Scholar
  52. United Nations Mongolia Country Team (2010b) Situation report no. 1: severe winter weather. United Nations, Ulan BatorGoogle Scholar
  53. Valente C (2014) Education and civil conflict in Nepal. World Bank Econ Rev 28(2):354–383. doi:10.1093/wber/lht014 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  54. Verwimp P, Van Bavel J (2014) Schooling, violent conflict, and gender in Burundi. World Bank Econ Rev 28(2):384–411. doi:10.1093/wber/lht010 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  55. World Bank (2006) Public financing of education. Equity and efficiency implications. World Bank, WashingtonGoogle Scholar
  56. World Bank (2010) World development report 2010: development and climate change. World Bank, WashingtonGoogle Scholar
  57. World Bank (2015) World development indicators: education statistics (last accessed 8th July 2015). World Bank, WashingtonCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  58. Zimmerman FJ, Carter MR (2003) Asset smoothing, consumption smoothing and the reproduction of inequality under risk and subsistence constraints. J Dev Econ 71(2):233–260CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin)BerlinGermany

Personalised recommendations