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Journal of Population Economics

, Volume 28, Issue 4, pp 1097–1135 | Cite as

Demographic consequences of HIV

  • Martin Karlsson
  • Stefan PichlerEmail author
Original Paper

Abstract

In this study, we estimate the effect of the HIV epidemic on demographic outcomes in three countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. We apply the synthetic control group method and estimate the consequences for life expectancy, mortality, and birth rates. According to standard measures of fit, the method seems to perform well for all countries and outcomes. Our results show a large effect on life expectancy and mortality in two countries, and a small and insignificant effect on birth rates. The impact of the pandemic is very heterogeneous. In Mozambique, the impact of HIV on life expectancy and mortality appears to have been surprisingly small. This heterogeneity is not due to AIDS causing fewer deaths in Mozambique than in the two other countries. Instead, the net effect of HIV in Mozambique appears to be diminished by reduced mortality for other causes—in particular child mortality, respiratory infections, and injuries.

Keywords

HIV AIDS Mortality Life expectancy Fertility Synthetic control groups 

JEL Classification

I15 J11 O15. 

Notes

Acknowledgments

We would like to thank Emily Oster for making HIV prevalence data available. Moreover, we thank Annika Lindskog for excellent comments and Christian Brückner for research assistance. Finally, we thank two anonymous referees for their help and guidance. We take responsibility for all remaining errors in and shortcomings of the article.

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.CINCHUniversity of Duisburg-EssenEssenGermany
  2. 2.ETH Zurich, KOF Swiss Economic InstituteZurichSwitzerland

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