Has immigration affected Spanish presidential elections results?
- 457 Downloads
Between 1998 and 2008, the immigrant share in Spain jumped from less than 3 % to more than 13 %. We provide bounds on the effect of immigration inflows on natives’ election outcomes by considering alternative assumptions about nationalized immigrants’ participation rates and voting behavior. We find that Latin-American immigration increased natives’ participation rate and their support for the major leftist party (Socialist Workers’ Party) over the major conservative party (People’s Party (PP)). Conversely, African immigration only increased natives’ support for anti-immigration formations relative to the PP while leaving unaffected their participation rate. The estimated effects are of modest size in all cases. We provide suggestive evidence that economic factors cannot account for such a heterogeneity in the effects of interest by immigrants’ ethnic groups. We argue that Spanish natives’ attitudes towards immigrants are mainly driven by noneconomic factors like dissimilarities between natives and immigrants in language, religion, and race.
KeywordsImmigration Electoral outcomes Instrumental variables National identity
We thank the editor and the three anonymous referees for their comments and suggestions that led to considerable improvements of the paper.
- Ahn N, Vazquez P (2007) ¿Por qué preocupa la inmigración?: Un análisis de los datos de la encuesta del CIS. Working Papers 2007–11, FEDEAGoogle Scholar
- Conde-Ruiz JI, Garcia JR, Navarro M (2008) The impact of immigration on the regional growth in Spain. Working Papers 2008-08, FEDEAGoogle Scholar
- Dustmann C, Preston IP (2007) Racial and economic factors in attitudes to immigration. BE J Econ Anal Policy (Contributions) 7(1):1–39Google Scholar
- Farré L, Gonzalez L, Ortega F (2011) Immigration, family responsibilities and the labor supply of skilled native women. BE J Econ Anal Policy (Contributions) 11(1):1–46Google Scholar
- Fernandez-Paez PE (2007) Los determinantes de la inmigración irregular en España. Anal Econ 46:1–25Google Scholar
- Gardeazabal J (2010) Vote shares in Spanish general elections as a fractional response to the economy and conflict. Economics of Security Working Paper Series 33, German Institute for Economic Research, DIW BerlinGoogle Scholar
- Gerdes C, Wadensjö E (2008) The impact of immigration on election outcomes in Danish municipalities. IZA discussion papers 3586. Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA), BonnGoogle Scholar
- Gonzalez L, Ortega F (2009a) Immigration and housing booms: evidence from Spain. CReAM Discussion Paper No 19/09, LondonGoogle Scholar
- Hansen CJ (2007) Asymptotic properties of a robust variance matrix estimator for panel data when T is large. J Econ 141:597–620Google Scholar
- Harmon NA (2012) Immigration, ethnic diversity and political outcomes: evidence from Denmark. Princeton IRS Working Paper 569, Princeton UniversityGoogle Scholar
- Lubbers M, Scheepers P (2000) Individual and contextual characteristics of the German extreme right-wing vote in the 1990s. A test of complementary theories. Eur J Polit Res 38:63–94Google Scholar
- Martínez-i-Coma F, Duval-Hernandez R (2009) Hostility toward immigration in Spain. IZA discussion papers 4109. Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA), BonnGoogle Scholar
- Otto A, Steinhardt M (2012) Immigration and election outcomes: evidence from city districts in Hamburg. Working Paper 02/2012. HSBA Hamburg School of Business Administration, HamburgGoogle Scholar
- Shvets Y (2004) Immigration politics in France: the effect of foreigners on electoral results. Senior Thesis. Department of Politics. New York UniversityGoogle Scholar
- Smith AD (2001) Nationalism: theory, ideology, history. Polity, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
- Volkens A, Lacewell O, Lehmann P, Regel S, Schultze H, Werner A (2012) The manifesto data collection. Manifesto Project (MRG/CMP/MARPOR). Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung (WZB), BerlinGoogle Scholar
- Wooldridge JM (2002) Econometric analysis of cross section and panel data. MIT, CambridgeGoogle Scholar