Journal of Population Economics

, Volume 25, Issue 3, pp 871–897 | Cite as

AIDS, “reversal” of the demographic transition and economic development: evidence from Africa

  • Sebnem Kalemli-OzcanEmail author
Original Paper


Using country- and region-level data, I investigate the effect of HIV/AIDS on fertility in Africa during 1985–2000. Results differ depending on the variation used and the estimation method. Between estimates that exploit cross-sectional variation suggest a positive significant effect of HIV/AIDS on fertility, whereas within estimates that are identified of off time-series variation show both positive and negative results depending on the HIV/AIDS variable used. These within estimates are insignificant in most of the specifications.


AIDS Fertility Growth 

JEL Classification

O11 I12 J11 J13 



The author thanks Emily Oster, Rodrigo Soares, two anonymous referees, and the seminar participants at Bilkent University, Brown University, Harvard University School of Public Health, METU, and participants of the 2005 conference on “Health, Demographics and Economic Development” at Stanford University, of the 2006 AIDS Workshop at Amsterdam Institute for International Development for valuable comments and suggestions. The author also thanks Ms. Laura Heaton of the Health Studies Branch, Population Division, the US Bureau of Census for providing her the HIV estimates.


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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag 2011

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.University of Houston and NBERHoustonUSA

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