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An age-period-cohort analysis for prevalence of common psychiatric disorders in Japan, 1999–2017

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Abstract

Purpose

This study aimed to analyze the prevalence of common psychiatric disorders in Japan via an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis.

Methods

Data were used on the prevalence of schizophrenia, schizotypal, and delusional disorders; mood [affective] disorders (mood disorders, hereafter); and neurotic, stress-related, and somatoform disorders from the 1999–2017 Patient Survey in Japan. The age group was defined as 20–89 years with 5-year increments; the cohort was assigned for each age group of each year with a 1-year shift. A Bayesian APC analysis was used to decompose changes in prevalence into three effects: age, period, and cohort.

Results

The APC analysis revealed that the peaks of age effect varied among sexes and diseases. The period effects for all the diseases showed increasing trends over the analyzed years. Although the cohort effect for the prevalence of schizophrenia, schizotypal, and delusional disorders increased until the 1960s, it decreased afterwards. On the other hand, the cohort effects for the prevalence of mood disorders and neurotic, stress-related, and somatoform disorders increased from around the 1950s, and it indicates the prevalence increased particularly in young ages over the years. Also, the trends of each effect were relatively similar between mood disorders and neurotic, stress-related, and somatoform disorders.

Conclusion

Increase in public awareness and psychological stress associated with a change in a social environment is thought to affect the period and cohort effects on the prevalence of mood disorders and neurotic, stress-related, and somatoform disorders.

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Data availability

The data used in this study can be downloaded from the website of Japan’s government statistics.

Code availability

The software code of APC analysis used in this study can be shared upon request.

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Acknowledgements

Enago has proofread the manuscript.

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Not applicable.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Kyushu University Hospital, Medical Information Center, Maidashi 3-1-1 Higashi-ku, Fukuoka City, Fukuoka Prefecture, 812-8582, Japan

    Tasuku Okui

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  1. Tasuku Okui
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Contributions

Conceptualization: TO. Data curation: TO. Formal analysis: TO. Methodology: TO. Funding acquisition: None. Writing- original draft: TO. Writing–review and editing: TO.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Tasuku Okui.

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Conflict of interest

The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest.

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Not applicable because we used data that are publicly available.

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Okui, T. An age-period-cohort analysis for prevalence of common psychiatric disorders in Japan, 1999–2017. Soc Psychiatry Psychiatr Epidemiol 56, 639–648 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00127-020-01988-5

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00127-020-01988-5

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