Characteristics of the studies
A flow chart describing the process of inclusion/exclusion of study is presented in Fig. 1. The literature search identified a total of 73 potentially relevant articles. Of these, 50 were excluded after reading the title or abstract because of obvious irrelevance, e.g. experimental articles and functional research. In addition, one article was excluded as it was a review and nine articles were excluded because they investigated the association between the MC4R polymorphism and obesity, obesity-related traits, stroke or polycystic ovary syndrome. Therefore, 13 articles met the primary inclusion criteria, of which one article was excluded because it was a duplicated publication [19] and another article was excluded because it did not provide sufficient data for calculation of an OR with 95% CI [20]. In addition, the nine studies included in the paper by Loos et al [3] were considered as separate studies in the following data analysis. The variant rs17782313 is known to be in high linkage disequilibrium (LD) with rs12970134 (D′ = 0.95, r
2 = 0.82 in CEU (Utah residents with Northern and Western European ancestry from the CEPH collection); D′ = 0.902, r
2 = 0.813 in CHB (Han Chinese in Beijing, China); D′ = 0.911, r
2 = 0.662 in JPT (Japanese in Tokyo, Japan)). Because of the high LD, we could not clarify which of the two SNPs is primarily associated with type 2 diabetes. In addition, if any study analysed both polymorphisms, only the rs17782313 polymorphism was selected.
A total of 19 studies (comprising 34,195 cases and 89,178 controls) for rs17782313 (or its proxy rs12970134) polymorphism were included in the meta-analysis [3, 6, 8–16]. Of these, 14 studies involved Europeans, four were of East Asians, and one involved South Asians. The genotype frequency in controls was in Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium for all included studies (p > 0.05). All studies (except for the study by Huang et al [14]) provided the crude and adjusted ORs with 95% CIs (adjusted for BMI), and the majority provided ORs with 95% CIs under an additive genetic model, hence we calculated the summary estimate under this model only [7]. The characteristics of the included studies are listed in Table 1.
Table 1 Characteristics of individual studies included in the meta-analysis
Meta-analysis results
The results showed a significant association of the rs17782313 polymorphism near the MC4R gene with the risk of type 2 diabetes (OR 1.10, 95% CI 1.07, 1.13, p = 2.83 × 10–12 [Z test], I
2 = 9.1%, p = 0.345 [heterogeneity], Fig. 2a), which retained significance even after adjustment for BMI (OR 1.06, 95% CI 1.03, 1.09, p = 2.14 × 10–5 [Z test], I
2 = 4.9%, p = 0.397 [heterogeneity], Fig. 2b). The results were similar in subgroups of Europeans and East Asians (electronic supplementary material [ESM] Fig. 1a and ESM Fig. 1b).
Sensitivity analysis
Sensitivity analysis was performed by excluding one study at a time. The results confirmed the significant association between the rs17782313 polymorphism near the MC4R gene and the risk of type 2 diabetes, with ORs and 95% CIs ranging from 1.09 (1.06, 1.12) to 1.11 (1.08, 1.14), and from 1.05 (1.02, 1.09) to 1.09 (1.05, 1.12) after adjustment for BMI.
Publication bias
We did not observe any publication bias for the rs17782313 polymorphism (Begg’s test p = 0.726, Egger’s test p = 0.872; after adjustment for BMI, Begg’s test p = 0.820, Egger’s test p = 0.687).
Analysis in two GWAS consortia
Replication analysis of our observations from a meta-analysis of GWAS consortia showed that rs17782313 polymorphism was associated with type 2 diabetes in both Europeans (OR 1.06, 95% CI 1.01, 1.11, p = 0.022 [Z test]) and in East Asians (OR 1.11, 95% CI 1.05, 1.18, p = 1.95 × 10–4 [Z test]). This association remained significant in East Asians even after adjustment for BMI (OR 1.08, 95% CI = 1.01, 1.14, p = 0.016 [Z test]). However, the analysis of influence of BMI adjustment on association between rs17782313 polymorphism and type 2 diabetes in Europeans could not be performed because BMI data were unavailable for the DIAGRAM Consortium.