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Modelling the effects of climate and land-cover changes on the potential distribution and landscape connectivity of three earth snakes (Genus Conopsis, Günther 1858) in central Mexico

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Abstract

Anthropogenic land use and climate change are the greatest threats to biodiversity, especially for many globally endangered reptile species. Earth snakes (Conopsis spp.) are a poorly studied group endemic to Mexico. They have limited dispersal abilities and specialized niches, making them particularly vulnerable to anthropogenic threats. Species distribution models (SDMs) were used to assess how future climate and land-cover change scenarios might influence the distribution and habitat connectivity of three earth snakes: Conopsis biserialis (Taylor and Smith), C. lineata (Kennicott), and C. nasus (Günther). Two climate models, CNRM-CM5 (CN) and MPI-ESM-LR (MP) (Representative Concentration Pathway 85), were explored with ENMeval Maxent modelling. Important SDM environmental variables and environmental niche overlap between species were also examined. We found that C. biserialis and C. lineata were restricted by maximum temperatures whereas C. nasus was restricted by minimum ones and was more tolerant to arid vegetation. C. biserialis and C. lineata were primarily distributed in the valleys and mountains of the highlands of the TMBV, while C. nasus was mainly distributed in the Altiplano Sur (Zacatecano-Potosino). C. lineata had the smallest potential distribution and suffered the greatest contraction in the future whereas C. nasus was the least affected species in future scenarios. The Sierra de las Cruces and the Sierra Chichinautzin were identified as very important areas for connectivity. Our results suggest that C. lineata may be the most vulnerable of the three species to anthropogenic and climate changes whereas C. nasus seems to be less affected by global warming than the other species.

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Acknowledgements

We are grateful to the editor and two anonymous reviewers for their comments. We thank Laura Gilchrist for the English review. This paper was completed while R.B.H was on his postdoctoral stay at UAEMex (CONACYT: I1200/94/2020), R.B.H was on his postdoctoral stay at UAEMex (CONACYT: 2995280/94/2022), A.G.F is on her postdoctoral stay at Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), receiving a scholarship from UNAM (CJIC/CTIC/5052/2021).

Funding

This work was supported by the Secretary of Research and Advanced Studies (SYEA) of the Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México (Grant to AS: 4732/2019CIB). A. S: Adahy Olun Contreras-García estoy haciendo todo por volverte a ver, mi amado hijo, espero pronto poder estar contigo de nuevo.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centro de Investigación en Ciencias Biológicas Aplicadas, Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México, Instituto Literario 100, Colonia Centro, 50000, Toluca, Estado de México, Mexico

    Armando Sunny, René Bolom-Huet & Rosa Laura Heredia-Bobadilla

  2. Laboratorio de Biología Evolutiva, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México, Instituto Literario 100, Colonia Centro, 50000, Toluca, Estado de México, Mexico

    Javier Manjarrez

  3. Instituto de Geología, Departamento de Paleontología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, 04510, Mexico City, Mexico

    Carmen Caballero-Viñas

  4. División de Desarrollo Sustentable, Universidad Intercultural del Estado de México, Libramiento Francisco Villa SN, 50640, San Felipe del Progreso, Estado de México, Mexico

    Yuriana Gómez-Ortiz & Hublester Domínguez-Vega

  5. Ingeniería en Biotecnología, Universidad Politécnica de Puebla, San Mateo Cuanalá, Juan C. Bonilla, 72640, Puebla, Mexico

    Erik Joaquín Torres-Romero

  6. Laboratorio de Análisis Geo-Espacial (LAGE), Instituto de Geografía, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), Circuito Exterior S/N, Coyoacán, Cd. Universitaria, 04510, Mexico City, Mexico

    Andrea González-Fernández

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  1. Armando Sunny
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Sunny, A., Manjarrez, J., Caballero-Viñas, C. et al. Modelling the effects of climate and land-cover changes on the potential distribution and landscape connectivity of three earth snakes (Genus Conopsis, Günther 1858) in central Mexico. Sci Nat 110, 52 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00114-023-01880-7

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