Zusammenfassung
Der Einfluss steigender Lebenserwartung auf die künftigen Gesundheitsausgaben wird aufgrund einer immer stärker ins hohe Alter verdrängten Mortalität einerseits und hoher Gesundheitsausgaben im letzten Lebensjahr (sogenannte Sterbekosten) andererseits moderat ausfallen. Da der Anstieg der individuellen Krankheitsausgaben nicht durch das Alter an sich, sondern durch die hohen Kosten in der Nähe zum Tod verursacht wird, hat der Aufschub der Mortalität in höhere Alter keinen starken Effekt auf die Lebensausgaben für Gesundheit. Eine Schätzung der GKV-Ausgabenentwicklung bis 2050, die die Sterbekosten explizit berücksichtigt, legt einen geringeren demografischen Einfluss nahe als eine Prognose auf Grundlage gegebener altersspezifischer Gesundheitsausgabenprofile.
Abstract
The impact of a longer life on future health care expenditures will be quite moderate because of the high costs of dying and the compression of mortality in old age. If not age per se but proximity to death determines the bulk of expenditures, a shift in the mortality risk to higher ages will not significantly affect lifetime health care expenditures, as death occurs only once in every life. A calculation of the demographic effect on health care expenditures in Germany up until 2050 that explicitly accounts for costs in the last years of life leads to a significantly lower demographic impact on per-capita expenditures than a calculation based on crude age-specific health expenditures.
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Felder, S. Gesundheitsausgaben und demografischer Wandel. Bundesgesundheitsbl. 55, 614–623 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00103-012-1469-4
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00103-012-1469-4