International Journal of Public Health

, Volume 62, Issue 8, pp 899–909 | Cite as

The effect of cigarette price increases on cigarette consumption, tax revenue, and smoking-related death in Africa from 1999 to 2013

  • Li-Ming Ho
  • Christian Schafferer
  • Jie-Min LeeEmail author
  • Chun-Yuan Yeh
  • Chi-Jung Hsieh
Original Article



This study investigates the effects of price hikes on cigarette consumption, tobacco tax revenues, and reduction in smoking-caused mortality in 36 African countries.


Using panel data from the 1999–2013 Euromonitor International, the World Bank and the World Health Organization, we applied fixed-effects and random-effects regression models of panel data to estimate the elasticity of cigarette prices and simulate the effect of price fluctuations.


Cigarette price elasticity was the highest for low-income countries and considerably lower for other African economies. The administered simulation shows that with an average annual cigarette price increase of 7.38%, the average annual cigarette consumption would decrease by 3.84%, and the average annual tobacco tax revenue would increase by 19.39%. By 2050, the number of averted smoking-attributable deaths (SADs) will be the highest in South Africa, followed by the Democratic Republic of Congo, Madagascar, and Ethiopia.


Excise tax increases have a significant effect on the reduction of smoking prevalence and the number of averted smoking-attributable deaths, Low-income countries are most affected by high taxation policies.


Cigarette consumption Price increases Price elasticity Smoking-related deaths Africa 


Compliance with ethical standards

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Ethics approval

This article does not contain any studies with human participants performed by any of the authors.


This research was supported by the Ministry of Science and Technology (NSC 103-2410-H-022-011-).


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Copyright information

© Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+) 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  • Li-Ming Ho
    • 1
  • Christian Schafferer
    • 2
  • Jie-Min Lee
    • 3
    Email author
  • Chun-Yuan Yeh
    • 2
  • Chi-Jung Hsieh
    • 4
  1. 1.Department of Marine Leisure ManagementNational Kaohsiung Marine UniversityKaohsiungTaiwan
  2. 2.Department of International TradeOverseas Chinese UniversityTaichungTaiwan
  3. 3.Department of Shipping and Transportation ManagementNational Kaohsiung Marine UniversityKaohsiungTaiwan
  4. 4.Department of FinanceNational Changhua University of EducationChanghuaTaiwan

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