The effect of cigarette price increases on cigarette consumption, tax revenue, and smoking-related death in Africa from 1999 to 2013
This study investigates the effects of price hikes on cigarette consumption, tobacco tax revenues, and reduction in smoking-caused mortality in 36 African countries.
Using panel data from the 1999–2013 Euromonitor International, the World Bank and the World Health Organization, we applied fixed-effects and random-effects regression models of panel data to estimate the elasticity of cigarette prices and simulate the effect of price fluctuations.
Cigarette price elasticity was the highest for low-income countries and considerably lower for other African economies. The administered simulation shows that with an average annual cigarette price increase of 7.38%, the average annual cigarette consumption would decrease by 3.84%, and the average annual tobacco tax revenue would increase by 19.39%. By 2050, the number of averted smoking-attributable deaths (SADs) will be the highest in South Africa, followed by the Democratic Republic of Congo, Madagascar, and Ethiopia.
Excise tax increases have a significant effect on the reduction of smoking prevalence and the number of averted smoking-attributable deaths, Low-income countries are most affected by high taxation policies.
KeywordsCigarette consumption Price increases Price elasticity Smoking-related deaths Africa
Compliance with ethical standards
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
This article does not contain any studies with human participants performed by any of the authors.
This research was supported by the Ministry of Science and Technology (NSC 103-2410-H-022-011-).
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