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Estimating diabetes prevalence in Turkey in 2025 with and without possible interventions to reduce obesity and smoking prevalence, using a modelling approach

International Journal of Public Health volume 60, pages 13–21 (2015)Cite this article

Abstract

Objectives

The purpose of this study is to estimate the prevalence and the number of people with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) in 2025 in Turkey and to evaluate the impact of possible policy options on T2DM prevalence.

Methods

We developed a model to predict future prevalence of T2DM using trend data for adults aged 25–74 in Turkey from 1997 to 2025. The model integrates population, obesity and smoking trends to estimate the future T2DM prevalence using a Markov approach.

Results

T2DM prevalence was 7.5 % (95 % CI: 6.0–9.0 %) in 1997 increasing to 16.2 % (95 % CI: 15.5–21.1 %) in 2010. The forecasted prevalence for 2025 was 31.5 % (28.6 % in men and 35.1 % in women). If obesity prevalence declines by 10 % and smoking decreases by 20 % in 10 years from 2010, a 10 % relative reduction in diabetes prevalence (1,655,213 individuals) could be achieved by 2025.

Conclusions

Diabetes burden is now a significant public health challenge, and our model predicts that its burden will increase significantly over the next two decades. Tackling obesity and other diabetes risk factors needs urgent action.

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Acknowledgments

This work was completed as part of the MedCHAMPS ((Mediterranean Studies of Cardiovascular disease and Hyperglycaemia: Analytical Modelling of Population Socio-economic transition) Project (EC FP7 Grant number 223075).

Conflict of interest

We declare that we have no conflicts of interest.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Katip Celebi University, Izmir, Turkey

    Kaan Sözmen

  2. Department of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Dokuz Eylül University, İnciraltı, Izmir, Turkey

    Belgin Unal

  3. Department of Public Health and Policy, Institute of Psychology, Health and Society, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK

    Simon Capewell & Martin O’Flaherty

  4. Population Health Research Institute, St George’s, University of London, London, UK

    Julia Critchley

Authors
  1. Kaan Sözmen
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  2. Belgin Unal
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  3. Simon Capewell
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  4. Julia Critchley
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  5. Martin O’Flaherty
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Kaan Sözmen.

Additional information

This article is part of the supplement “The rising burden of noncommunicable diseases in four Mediterranean countries and potential solutions”.

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Sözmen, K., Unal, B., Capewell, S. et al. Estimating diabetes prevalence in Turkey in 2025 with and without possible interventions to reduce obesity and smoking prevalence, using a modelling approach. Int J Public Health 60 (Suppl 1), 13–21 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00038-014-0622-2

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00038-014-0622-2

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