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International Journal of Public Health

, Volume 60, Supplement 1, pp 13–21 | Cite as

Estimating diabetes prevalence in Turkey in 2025 with and without possible interventions to reduce obesity and smoking prevalence, using a modelling approach

  • Kaan SözmenEmail author
  • Belgin Unal
  • Simon Capewell
  • Julia Critchley
  • Martin O’Flaherty
Original Article

Abstract

Objectives

The purpose of this study is to estimate the prevalence and the number of people with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) in 2025 in Turkey and to evaluate the impact of possible policy options on T2DM prevalence.

Methods

We developed a model to predict future prevalence of T2DM using trend data for adults aged 25–74 in Turkey from 1997 to 2025. The model integrates population, obesity and smoking trends to estimate the future T2DM prevalence using a Markov approach.

Results

T2DM prevalence was 7.5 % (95 % CI: 6.0–9.0 %) in 1997 increasing to 16.2 % (95 % CI: 15.5–21.1 %) in 2010. The forecasted prevalence for 2025 was 31.5 % (28.6 % in men and 35.1 % in women). If obesity prevalence declines by 10 % and smoking decreases by 20 % in 10 years from 2010, a 10 % relative reduction in diabetes prevalence (1,655,213 individuals) could be achieved by 2025.

Conclusions

Diabetes burden is now a significant public health challenge, and our model predicts that its burden will increase significantly over the next two decades. Tackling obesity and other diabetes risk factors needs urgent action.

Keywords

Markov model Diabetes Projection Intervention Obesity 

Notes

Acknowledgments

This work was completed as part of the MedCHAMPS ((Mediterranean Studies of Cardiovascular disease and Hyperglycaemia: Analytical Modelling of Population Socio-economic transition) Project (EC FP7 Grant number 223075).

Conflict of interest

We declare that we have no conflicts of interest.

Supplementary material

38_2014_622_MOESM1_ESM.pdf (629 kb)
Supplementary material 1 (PDF 629 kb)

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Copyright information

© Swiss School of Public Health 2014

Authors and Affiliations

  • Kaan Sözmen
    • 1
    Email author
  • Belgin Unal
    • 2
  • Simon Capewell
    • 3
  • Julia Critchley
    • 4
  • Martin O’Flaherty
    • 3
  1. 1.Department of Public Health, Faculty of MedicineKatip Celebi UniversityIzmirTurkey
  2. 2.Department of Public Health, Faculty of MedicineDokuz Eylül UniversityIzmirTurkey
  3. 3.Department of Public Health and Policy, Institute of Psychology, Health and SocietyUniversity of LiverpoolLiverpoolUK
  4. 4.Population Health Research InstituteSt George’s, University of LondonLondonUK

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