The Dinar Earthquake (Mw = 6.2; October 1, 1995; Afyon-Turkey) and Earthquake Hazard of the Dinar-Çivril Fault

Abstract

—A moderately strong earthquake (M _w = 6.2) occurred in the town of Dinar at 17.57 UT on October 1, 1995, taking the lives of 90 people and damaging about 4500 buildings. Its epicenter is located near the Dinar-Çivril fault and its focal mechanism is linked to a northeast-southwesterly tensional stress field arising from the interaction between the subducting African plate and the overriding Aegean-Anatolian plate in the eastern Mediterranean.¶Surface cracks of the October 1 earthquake have been observed 10 km continuously along the Dinar-Çivril fault. The cracks have displayed a mode of dip-slip; however, some have also indicated lateral slip. The different modes of slip are generally in agreement with the fault plane solution and are indicators of the complex nature of the rupture process.¶In investigating the earthquake hazard of the Dinar-Çivril fault and proximity, the maximum likelihood method was used to estimate seismic hazard parameters of b-value, seismicity activity rate λ _m and the expected maximum magnitude M _max . The data consisted of the historical data covering the period between 1800–1900 and instrumental data between 1900 and 1992. This method, allowing use of the mixed earthquake catalogue containing both historical and instrumental earthquake data, yielded values of 0.70, 1.92 and 7.14 for b, λ _m and M _max , respectively. The recurrence time estimated for an earthquake of a magnitude of M _w = 6.2 is 123 years. The non-occurrence probabilities of such an earthquake in 1 and 50 years are 0.21 and 0.04, respectively.