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Assessment of Continuity Changes in Spatial and Temporal Trend of Rainfall and Drought

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Abstract

Identifying the changes and effects of drought (as a natural creeping phenomenon) as accurately as possible is very effective and essential in managing how to deal with this phenomenon. To study drought in more detail, the main objective of this research is to consider the stability and changes of drought in different moving periods (MPs). These investigations were performed for various seasonal and annual time scales using rainfall values and reconnaissance drought index (RDI). The results showed sinusoidal changes in trend correlation coefficients (TCCs) for the 10-year MP, in which the wave amplitude became shorter and wavelength became longer as the MP lengthened. In recent MPs, the coefficient values of the trend were increasing. The RDI analysis showed that, in addition to the mentioned changes, the trend of autumn time scale changes in the 15- and 20-year MPs, especially after MP7, was the opposite of the change trend in other time scales, especially the winter time scale. According to the results, the values of P(N/N) were greater than the values of P(N/P), which showed the stability of the decreasing trend of rainfall and RDI changes in different MPs, especially at 10 years.

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Data availability

The data used in this research was available on the Fars province meteorological organization site (www.farsmet.ir).

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Acknowledgements

Authors of this paper would like to thank the National Meteorological Organization of Iran (www.irimo.ir) for providing the necessary meteorological information.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Water Science and Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Fasa University, Fasa, Iran

    Ali Shabani, Mohammad Mehdi Moghimi & Marzieh Mohammadjani

  2. Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science, Fasa University, Fasa, Iran

    Mohammad Reza Mahmoudi

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  1. Ali Shabani
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  3. Marzieh Mohammadjani
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  4. Mohammad Reza Mahmoudi
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Contributions

Material preparation, data collection, and analysis were performed by Marzieh Mohammadjani, Mohammad Mehdi Moghimi, Ali Shabani, and Mohammad Reza Mahmoudi. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Mohammad Mehdi Moghimi, and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Mohammad Mehdi Moghimi.

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Shabani, A., Moghimi, M.M., Mohammadjani, M. et al. Assessment of Continuity Changes in Spatial and Temporal Trend of Rainfall and Drought. Pure Appl. Geophys. 180, 4295–4317 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-023-03377-w

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-023-03377-w

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