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Characterization of Seismic Source Zones in the Gulf of Aden Region

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Abstract

The Gulf of Aden is one of the active tectonic elements encompassing the Arabian Plate, representing a potential hazard for the southern parts of Oman and Yemen. This calls for an improved seismic source model for the Gulf, which is crucial for any future seismic hazard assessment regardless of the adopted approach. The developed model is delineated based on a statistical analysis of an updated earthquake catalogue, tectonic setting, and stress regime in the Gulf of Aden. Kernel density estimation (KDE) is applied to obtain an approximation of the probability density function that governs the statistical distribution of earthquakes in the area. The spatial distribution of earthquake and seismic moment kernel densities are calculated to contribute to the modeling of the seismic source. Statistical methods were then applied for estimating the maximum possible earthquake magnitude (Mmax) and the earthquake recurrence parameters [annual rate of earthquakes (λ) and β-value] for each delineated seismic zone. The seismotectonic features and the results of statistical analysis led to the delineation of four seismic sources with their essential parameters to produce a more reliable seismic hazard analysis.

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Funding

The authors declare that no funds, grants, or other support was received during the preparation of this manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Earthquake Monitoring Center, Sultan Qaboos University, Muscat, Oman

    Ahmed Deif, Harith Al Kubaisy, Issa El-Hussain, Yousuf Al-Shijbi & Adel M. E. Mohamed

  2. National Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics, Helwan, Cairo, Egypt

    Iman Farag Abu El-Nader & Adel M. E. Mohamed

Authors
  1. Ahmed Deif
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  2. Harith Al Kubaisy
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  3. Iman Farag Abu El-Nader
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  4. Issa El-Hussain
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  5. Yousuf Al-Shijbi
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  6. Adel M. E. Mohamed
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Contributions

AD: conceptualization; methodology; writing; original draft preparation; supervision. AMEM: conceptualization; data curation; methodology; supervision; writing; editing and review. IEH: conceptualization; research administration supervision; validation; and review. YAS: conceptualization; formal analysis; and review. EAAN: conceptualization; formal analysis; and review. IEH, HAK: conceptualization; formal analysis. All authors have approved the final article.

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Correspondence to Adel M. E. Mohamed.

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Deif, A., Al Kubaisy, H., Abu El-Nader, I.F. et al. Characterization of Seismic Source Zones in the Gulf of Aden Region. Pure Appl. Geophys. 180, 91–110 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-022-03219-1

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