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Revisiting the Precursors of Cyclonic Systems in the CORDEX RCM REMO2009 Simulations

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Abstract

The Tropical Cyclonic Disturbances (TCDs) over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) have always disrupted life, economy and environment across the coastal regions. The present study evaluates the ability of COoordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) constituting regional climate model (here REMO2009) in simulating the behaviour of some precursors of TCDs, frequency of TCDs and their intensity over the BoB. Furthermore, the impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are addressed to determine the sensitivity of the model in capturing large-scale ocean-atmosphere coupled phenomena. The model outputs (resolution 0.44° × 0.44°) are evaluated against the recorded observations of India Meteorological Department and ERA-Interim reanalysis (resolution 0.25° × 0.25°) over the time period 1979–2005. Evaluation of TCD frequencies and intensities on a year-to-year basis shows the model performing reasonably well against observations but intensity is largely reduced. Also, we find an overestimated number of TCDs in the model as pre-monsoon (post-monsoon) shows + 195% (+ 80%) more TCDs. The large-scale environmental fields associated with TCDs show spatiotemporal biases of varying magnitudes in the model however are consistent in capturing TCDs and their behaviours. The mean climatology shows clear differences in environmental fields during days with TCDs and without TCDs. The genesis geolocations in observations are coherent with their environmental fields and are firmly reproduced in the model albeit with spatial differences. The intensity in the model is found to be mostly low showing weak TCDs besides overestimating (underestimating) TCDs of moderate (high) intensities. The REMO2009 model is found satisfactorily simulating the TCDs (year-to-year basis) and associated large-scale environmental fields against the observations and reanalysis. The impacts of large climatic teleconnections (ENSO and IOD) are also captured in the model with warm ENSO phase suppressing the TCDs activities while cold phase triggering the TCDs. On the similar watch, a negative dipole over the Indian Ocean triggers the TCDs while a positive dipole suppresses the TCDs formation in the model. The present study using the regional climate model (RCM) REMO2009 is moreover a needed baseline for the future projections and evaluation of other RCMs under the CORDEX domains.

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Data availability

The raw datasets used in the study are available in the public repositories maintained by respective institutions and subject to respective institutional policy of data sharing and use.

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Acknowledgements

India Meteorological Department (IMD), India; European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF); Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune; and Met Office Hadley Centre, UK, are duly acknowledged for the data. The Department of Science and Technology, Government of India, is acknowledged for the grant.

Funding

The work is an outcome of the research project supported by the Department of Science and Technology (DST), Government of India (Letter No: DST/CCP/NCM/70/2017(G)).

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  1. Department of Environmental Science, School of Earth, Biological and Environmental Sciences, Central University of South Bihar (CUSB), SH-7, Gaya-Panchanpur Road, P.O: Fatehpur, Gaya, Bihar, 824236, India

    Ashutosh K. Sinha & P. Parth Sarthi

  2. India Meteorological Department, Mausam Bhawan, Lodi Road, New Delhi, India

    Praveen Kumar

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PPS conceptualised the idea for this research. AKS performed the analysis and drafted the manuscript as part of the PhD research. PK provided suggestions and assisted in result writing. PPS proof read the research paper.

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Sinha, A.K., Sarthi, P.P. & Kumar, P. Revisiting the Precursors of Cyclonic Systems in the CORDEX RCM REMO2009 Simulations. Pure Appl. Geophys. 180, 277–312 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-022-03202-w

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