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Local Tsunami Amplification Factors due to the Bathymetric Effect and its Application to Approximate Hazard Assessment on the Zihuatanejo Coast

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Abstract

This study estimated tsunami amplification factors due to the bathymetric effect independent of the direction of the tsunami source on the Zihuatanejo coast, Mexico. First, a total of 200 slip distributions of earthquakes (\(M\!\mathrm {_w}\) 8.4) in the Mexican subduction zone were generated using a stochastic source model. Subsequently, the relationship between the initial tsunami distribution in the source zone and tsunami amplitude at the coastal locations was analyzed via numerical simulations based on these 200 tsunami scenarios. Detailed numerical simulations were performed using high-resolution (up to 5 m) bathymetry data for coastal areas. The initial tsunami sources were considered a finite set of unit waves in the regression analysis, and the representative parameters of the initial tsunami were defined by the superposition of the unit waves. Regression analysis results showed that the representative parameters adequately explained the maximum tsunami amplitude around the target area. As the initial tsunami distribution is independently represented, the regression coefficients can be regarded as tsunami amplification factors owing to the bathymetric effect on each coastal location. Additionally, a simplified prediction model was developed for the maximum tsunami amplitude by using the amplification factors and comparing them with the numerical model. The prediction model was statistically consistent with the numerical results in the target area despite ignoring detailed bay geometry and nonlinear amplification. This amplification factor is unsuitable to predict tsunamis for individual events, but is useful for approximate mapping of stochastic tsunami hazard/risk around nearshore areas.

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Acknowledgements

The background map of the figure indicating the fault zone of Mexico is based on the Nature Earth (https://www.naturalearthdata.com/) public domain map dataset. Datasets of ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model Version 2 (GDEM2; https://asterweb.jpl.nasa.gov) and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM; https://lta.cr.usgs.gov) were used for verification of the bathymetry and topography data. The authors acknowledge the Mexican Secretary of the Navy for providing the bathymetry measurement data near Zihuatanejo Bay, Erika Danae López-Espinoza for his support in the processing of the topography and bathymetry, and the Servicio Mareográfico Nacional for the sea level data of the Chiapas 2017 event. The authors also acknowledge anonymous reviewers for many valuable comments and suggestions.

Funding

This work was supported by Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development (SATREPS) with grant number JPMJSA1510, JSPS KAKENHI grant (20K22432), and the Core-to-Core Collaborative Research Program of the Earthquake Research Institute, the University of Tokyo, and the Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University (2021-K-01).

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  1. Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan

    Takuya Miyashita & Nobuhito Mori

  2. School of Engineering, Swansea University, Swansea, UK

    Nobuhito Mori

  3. Instituto de Geofisica, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, Mexico

    Octavio Gómez-Ramos

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  1. Takuya Miyashita
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Miyashita, T., Mori, N. & Gómez-Ramos, O. Local Tsunami Amplification Factors due to the Bathymetric Effect and its Application to Approximate Hazard Assessment on the Zihuatanejo Coast. Pure Appl. Geophys. 179, 4301–4322 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-022-03177-8

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