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Comparison of Early Aftershock Forecasting for the 2008 Wenchuan MS8.0 Earthquake

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Abstract

The MS8.0 earthquake that occurred in Wenchuan, Sichuan in 2008 provides an important case for the study of operational earthquake forecasting and short-term aftershock forecasting of major disaster-inducing earthquakes in China. This paper focuses on the comparative study of the applicability of the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model, the Reasenberg–Jones (R–J) model and the Omi–R–J model, which are widely adopted internationally for short-term aftershock forecasting and seismic hazard mitigation strategy research. We compare the stability of model parameters and aftershock occurrence rate forecasting, and evaluate the effectiveness of forecasting using the N-test and T-test with multiple time windows. The results show that the sequence parameters of the ETAS model, the R–J model and the Omi–R–J model tend to stabilize after 15.50, 15.50 and 6.00 days following the earthquake respectively, and the attenuation of the Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake is rather normal. Compared to the ETAS model and the R–J model, the Omi–R–J model obtain steadier model parameters in a shorter time with significantly smaller parameters pORJ, cORJ, bORJ and standard deviations. Among the three models, the overall aftershock occurrence rate forecasted by the R–J model is the highest, followed by the Omi–R–J model, while that of the ETAS model is the lowest. N-test results show overall forecasting effectiveness of 93.8, 80.7 and 97.7% for the ETAS, R–J and Omi–R–J models, respectively, with the ETAS and Omi–R–J models superior to the R–J model, and the Omi–R–J model slightly better than the ETAS model. The overall “information gain per earthquake” calculation results show that the ETAS model is superior to the Omi–R–J and R–J models, while the Omi–R–J model is better than the R–J model; thus the combined use of the ETAS and Omi–R–J models by focusing on their respective strengths might ensure optimal performance. These “maneuverable” forecasting approaches to short-term aftershock model forecasting will play a vital role in efficient post-disaster relief, emergency management decision-making and post-disaster reconstruction.

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Notes

  1. https://baike.baidu.com/item/5.12Wenchuanearthquake/11042644?fromtitle=Wenchuanearthquake&fromid=2452700&fr=aladdin.

  2.  <Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake Scientific Research Report> Compiling group, 2009. Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake scientific research report, Beijing: Seismological Press.

  3. National Earthquake Cataloging System, http://10.5.202.22/bianmu/index.jsp, accessed June 22, 2018.

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Acknowledgements

This research is supported by the 2018 Earthquake Regime Tracking Work of CEA (2018010101) and the international partnership program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant no. 131551KYSB20160002). The preparatory group of the China Laboratory Center for the International Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) plan provided guidance for this study. The study used the National Unified Official Catalogue provided by the China Earthquake Networks Center. We thank the guest editor of the present special issue, Prof. Zhongliang Wu, for the invitation. We also express our gratitude to Prof. Zhuang Jiancang of the Institute of Statistics and Mathematics (ISM) and Dr. Takahiro Omi of the Institute of Production Technology, Tokyo University, Japan, for their procedural and technical support. Additionally, we also thank to anonymous reviewers, whose comments and editing helped to greatly improve the paper.

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  1. Tianjin Earthquake Agency, Tianjin, China

    Jinmeng Bi

  2. Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, China

    Changsheng Jiang

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Bi, J., Jiang, C. Comparison of Early Aftershock Forecasting for the 2008 Wenchuan MS8.0 Earthquake. Pure Appl. Geophys. 177, 9–25 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-019-02192-6

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