Advertisement

Multi-Parametric Climatological Analysis Associated with Global Significant Volcanic Eruptions During 2002–2017

  • Alessandro PisciniEmail author
  • Dedalo Marchetti
  • Angelo De Santis
Article

Abstract

In this work, we search for physical and chemical climatological anomalies preceding major volcanic explosive eruptions (mostly VEI—Volcanic Explosivity Index 4+) occurred from 2002 to 2017, by applying two specific algorithms, i.e. CAPRI and MEANS. The former algorithm has been already used for a multi-climatological analysis of the Amatrice-Norcia 2016–2017 earthquake preparatory phase (Piscini et al., In: Pure Appl Geophys, 174:3673–3688, 2017). Here we analyse some climatological parameters for a three-month period before each volcanic explosive eruption then we compare the behavior with the typical one of the past. The analysis is applied to an area with dimensions comparable to the volcano crater, because it is the increase of the magmatic camera activity that, in turn, can cause a temperature increase whose evidence could be detected at the surface (Slezin, In: J Volcanol Geotherm Res, 122(1–2), 7–50, 2003), while the use of a larger area would provide a greater probability of occurrence of other events (e.g., other volcano eruption, meteorological storms, etcetera). Therefore, a smaller area of study reduces the risk to get “false alarms”. In particular, we considered thermal skin temperature, (skt) and total water vapour content (tcwv) from ECMWF European centre and aerosol optical thickness (AOT), sulphur dioxide (SO2) and atmospheric dimethylsulphide (DMS) are obtained from NASA MERRA-2 Global Modeling and Assimilation data archive. The latter compound was added in the analysis to check the validity of the method, since we did not expect significant anomalies from this parameter. The models above described are used for their temporal-spatial completeness, allowing performing time series analyses and for a real time monitoring on a global scale. By simultaneous analysis, we found for almost all volcanic eruptions some anomalies in about all analyzed parameters that precede by 75 days to 20 days the explosion. These anomalies are not always simultaneous, but we find an interesting synchronicity that probably reveals a correlation among the different datasets. In addition, the Agung volcano, which has recently started an eruptive activity (25 November 2017) without reaching a VEI4+ explosion, has also been investigated. The data related to this volcano present a small number of anomalies, much lower than all attributed to the other analyzed explosive volcanoes and this is in high agreement with the low-explosive nature of the Agung volcano eruption. We find that the occurrence of thermal anomalies typically preceding stratovolcano/caldera eruptions seems to take place some days after SO2 emissions. The climatological anomalies that precede eruptions at high latitudes usually surround the volcano in a wider area outside the volcanic edifice. We verify that the number of positive anomalies is systematically greater in the year that precedes the investigated eruption with respect to a quiet year of comparison with accuracy from 91 to 100%, suggesting that the applied methods detected climatological anomalies likely related to imminent volcanic eruptions.

Keywords

Volcanic eruption precursors LAIC climatological precursor anomaly 

Notes

Acknowledgements

This work was developed in the framework of SAFE (SwArm for Earthquake Study) and Limadou-Science Projects, funded by the European and Italian Space Agencies, respectively. The authors thank the referees for the interesting and useful comments and suggestions that permitted us to improve the manuscript significantly.

References

  1. Andreae, M. O., & Raemdonck, H. (1983). Dimethyl sulfide in the surface ocean and the marine atmosphere: A global view. Science, 221(4612), 744–747.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Baxter, P. J., & Gresham, A. (1997). Deaths and injuries in the eruption of Galeras Volcano, Colombia, 14 January 1993. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 77, 325–338.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Brenguier, F., Shapiro, N. M., Campillo, M., Ferrazzini, V., Duputel, Z., Coutant, O., et al. (2008). Towards forecasting volcanic eruptions using seismic noise. Nature Geoscience, 1, 126.  https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo104.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Brohan, P., Kennedy, J. J., Harris, I., Tett, S. F. B., & Jones, P. D. (2006). Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: A new data set from 1850. Journal of Geophysical Research, 111, D12106.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006548.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. De Natale, G., Troise, C., Kilburn, C. R. J., Somma, R., & Moretti, R. (2017). Understanding volcanic hazard at the most populated caldera in the world: Campi Flegrei, Southern Italy. Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, 18, 2004–2008.  https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GC006972.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. De Santis, A., De Franceschi, G., Spogli, L., Perrone, L., Alfonsi, L., Qamili, E., et al. (2015). Geospace perturbations induced by the Earth: the state of the art and future trends. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 85, 17–33.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi, S., et al. (2011). The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 137, 553–597.  https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Dobrovolsky, I. P., Zubkov, S. I., & Miachkin, V. I. (1979). Estimation of the size of earthquake preparation zones. PAGEOPH, 117, 1025.  https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00876083.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Einarsson, P. (2018). Short-term seismic precursors to icelandic eruptions 1973–2014. Frontiers in Earth Science, 6, 45.  https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2018.00045.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. ESA/DLR. Sentinels monitor volcanic Mount Agung, 25 January 2018. ESA image id: 387375. https://earth.esa.int/web/sentinel/missions/sentinel-5p/news/-/article/sentinels-monitor-volcanic-mount-agung.
  11. Farrell, J., Husen, S., & Smith, R. B. (2009). Earthquake swarm and b-value characterization of the Yellowstone volcano-tectonic system. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 188(1), 260–276.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2009.08.008.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Fujii, T., & Nakada, S. (1999). The 15 September 1991 pyroclastic flows at Unzen Volcano (Japan); a flow model for associated ash-cloud surges. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 89, 159–172.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Gelaro, R., McCarty, W., Suárez, M.J., Todling, R., Molod, A., Takacs, L, Randles, C. A., Darmenov, A., Bosilovich, M.G., Reichle, R., Wargan, K., Coy, L., Cullather, R., Draper, C., Akella, S., Buchard, V., Conaty, A., da Silva, A.M., Gu, W., Kim, G.-K., Koster, R., Lucchesi, R., Merkova, D., Nielsen, J.E., Partyka, G., Pawson, S., Putman, W., Rienecker, M., Schubert, S.D.c, Sienkiewicz, M., Zhao, B. (2017). The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), American Meteorological Society—Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) special collection.Google Scholar
  14. Global Volcanism Program, (2013). Volcanoes of the World, v. 4.6.7. Venzke, E (ed.). Smithsonian Institution. Downloaded 24 Apr 2018. https://dx.doi.org/10.5479/si.GVP.VOTW4-2013.
  15. Gobiet, A., Foelsche, U., Steiner, A. K., Borsche, M., Kirchengast, G., & Wickert, J. (2005). Climatological validation of stratospheric temperatures in ECMWF operational analyses with CHAMP radio occultation data. Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L12806.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL022617.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Kållberg, P., Köhler, M., Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J.-J., et al. (2011). The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Quarterly Journal of the royal Meteorological Society, 137, 553–597.  https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Lambert, S. J. (1988). A comparison of operational global analyses from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the National Meteorological Center (NMC). Tellus A, 40A, 272–284.  https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.1988.tb00347.x.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Lomax, A., Zollo, A., Capuano, P., & Virieux, J. (2001). Precise, absolute earthquake location under Somma-Vesuvius volcano using a new three-dimensional velocity model. Geophysical Journal International, 146(2), 313–331.  https://doi.org/10.1046/j.0956-540x.2001.01444.x.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Lovelock, J. E., Maggs, R. J., & Rasmussen, R. A. (1972). Atmospheric dimethyl sulphide and natural sulphur cycle. Nature, 237, 452–453.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Marchese, F., Ciampa, M., Filizzola, C., Lacava, T., Mazzeo, G., Pergola, N., et al. (2010). On the exportability of robust satellite techniques (RST) for active volcano monitoring. Remote Sensing, 2, 1575–1588.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Massonnet, D., Briole, P., & Arnaud, A. (2001). Deflation of Mount Etna monitored by spaceborne radar interferometry. Nature, 375, 567–570.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Mastrolorenzo, G., Palladino, D. M., Pappalardo, L., & Rossano, S. (2017). Probabilistic-numerical assessment of pyroclastic current hazard at Campi Flegrei and Naples city: Multi-VEI scenarios as a tool for “full-scale” risk management. PLoS One, 12(10), e0185756.  https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0185756.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. McGuire, W. J., & Kilburn, C. R. J. (1997). Forecasting volcanic events: some contemporary issues. Geologische Rundschau, 86(2), 439–445.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Occhipinti, G., Lognonné, P., Kherani, E. A., & Hebert, H. (2006). Three-dimensional waveform modeling of ionospheric signature induced by the 2004 Sumatra tsunami. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L20104.  https://doi.org/10.1029/JC087iC02p01231.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Parrot, M., Achacheb, J., Berthelier, J. J., Blanc, E., Deschamps, E., Lefeuvre, F., et al. (1993). High-frequency seismo-electromagnetic effects. Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, 77(1), 65–83.  https://doi.org/10.1016/0031-9201(93)90034-7.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Patanè, D., Barberi, G., Cocina, O., De Gori, P., & Chiarabba, C. (2006). Time-resolved seismic tomography detects magma intrusions at Mount Etna. Science, 313, 821–823.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Patanè, D., De Gori, P., Chiarabba, C., & Bonaccorso, A. (2003). Magma ascent and the pressurization of Mount Etna’s volcanic system. Science, 299, 2061–2063.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Pergola, N., Marchese, F., & Tramutoli, V. (2004). Automated detection of thermal features of active volcanoes by means of infrared AVHRR records. Remote Sensing of Environment, 93(3), 311–327.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2004.07.010.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Piscini, A., De Santis, A., Marchetti, D., & Cianchini, G. (2017). A multi-parametric climatological approach to study the 2016 Amatrice-Norcia (Central Italy) earthquake preparatory phase. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 174, 3673–3688.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-017-1597-8.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Pritchard, M. E., & Simons, M. (2004a). An InSAR-based survey of volcanic deformation in the central Andes. Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, 5, 2.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GC000610.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Pritchard, M. E., & Simons, M. (2004b). An InSAR-based survey of volcanic deformation in the southern Andes. Geophysical Research Letters, 31(15), L15610.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL020545.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Pulinets, S., & Davidenko, D. (2014). Ionospheric precursors of earthquakes and Global Electric Circuit. Advances in Space Research, 53(5), 709–723.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2013.12.035.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Pulinets, S., & Ouzounov, D. (2011). Lithosphere-Atmosphere- ionosphere coupling (LAIC) model-an unified concept for earthquake precursors validation. Journal of Asian Earth Sciences, 41(4–5), 371–382.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Reath, K., Ramsey, M. S., Dehn, J., & Webley, P. (2016). Predicting eruptions from precursory activity using remote sensing data hybridization. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 321, 21.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2016.04.027.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Rymer, H. (1994). Microgravity changes as a precursor to volcanic activity. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 61, 311–328.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Rymer, H., Cassidy, J., Locke, C. A., & Sigmundsson, F. (1998). Posteruptive gravity changes from 1990 to 1996 at Krafla Volcano, Iceland. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 87, 141–149.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Rymer, H., & Williams-Jones, G. (2000). Volcanic eruption prediction: magma chamber physics from gravity and deformation measurements. Geophysical Research Letters, 27(16), 2389–2392.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Sears, T. M., Thomas, G. E., Carboni, E., Smith, A. J. A., & Grainger, R. G. (2013). SO2 as a possible proxy for volcanic ash in aviation hazard avoidance. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 118, 5698–5709.  https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50505.Google Scholar
  39. Simkin, T., Siebert, L., McClelland, L., Bridge, D., Newhall, C., & Latter, J. H. (1994). Volcanoes of the World (2nd ed.). Stroudsburg: HutchinsonRoss Publishing.Google Scholar
  40. Slezin, Y. B. (2003). The mechanism of volcanic eruptions (a steady state approach). Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 122(1–2), 7–50.  https://doi.org/10.1016/S0377-0273(02)00464-X.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Small, C., & Naumann, T. (2001). The global distribution of human population and recent volcanism. Environmental Hazards, 3(3–4), 93–109.Google Scholar
  42. Thomas, H. E., & Prata, A. J. (2011). Sulphur dioxide as a volcanic ash proxy during the April–May 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallaj¨okull Volcano. Iceland. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 6871–6880.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Wooster, M. J., & Rothery, D. A. (1997). Thermal monitoring of Lascar Volcano, Chile, using infrared data from the along-track scanning radiometer: a 1992–1995 time series. Bulletin of Volcanology, 58(7), 566–579.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Yamaoka, K., Miyamachi, H., Watanabe, T., Kunitomo, T., & Michishita, T. (2014). Active monitoring at an active volcano: amplitude-distance dependence of ACROSS at Sakurajima Volcano, Japan. Earth, Planets and Space, 66(1), 1–17.  https://doi.org/10.1186/1880-5981-66-32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Yu, H. J., Guo, J. Y., Li, J. L., Mu, D. P., & Kong, Q. L. (2015). Zero drift and solid Earth tide extracted from relative gravimetric data with principal component analysis. Geodesy and Geodynamics, 6(2), 143–150.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geog.2015.01.006.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Zlotnicki, J., Li, F., & Parrot, M. (2010). Signals recorded by DEMETER satellite over active volcanoes during the period 2004 August–2007 December. Geophysical Journal International, 183(3), 1332–1347.  https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246x.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Zlotnicki, J., Li, F., & Parrot, M. (2013). Ionospheric disturbances recorded by DEMETER satellite over active volcanoes: From August 2004 to December 2010. International Journal of Geophysics, 530865, 17.  https://doi.org/10.1155/2013/530865.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  • Alessandro Piscini
    • 1
    Email author
  • Dedalo Marchetti
    • 1
  • Angelo De Santis
    • 1
  1. 1.Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e VulcanologiaRomeItaly

Personalised recommendations