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The Asymmetric Influence of the South China Sea Biweekly SST on the Abnormal Indian Monsoon Rainfall of 2002

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Abstract

An examination of the contrasting behaviour of the Indian summer monsoon during peak monsoon months of July and August 2002 in relation to the South China Sea (SCS) SST variations on intra-seasonal time scale have been carried out in this study. Monsoon rainfall over India was a deficit during July whereas enhanced rainfall activity was evident during August. Interestingly, SST over the SCS also exhibited similar contrasting behaviour with less variation during July and strong biweekly intra-seasonal (BWI) oscillation with 10–20 day periodicity during August. During August, the BWI oscillation in the SCS SST could induce anomalous cyclonic circulation and enhancement in rainfall over the SCS, suggestive of a strong air–sea interaction process. Moreover, a strong relationship between the Indian monsoon and SCS SST is evident during August, at 3-day lead time of SST. The SCS SST variations could enhance westward propagation of moisture flux from the SCS to the Indian subcontinent and thereby influences the Indian monsoon. The SST variations and air–sea interaction processes over the SCS, also westward propagation of BWI moisture flux were weak during July. Our analysis suggests that SST variations over the SCS could modulate the monsoon circulation as well as the moisture flux from the SCS to the Indian subcontinent and thereby influence the Indian monsoon, particularly on biweekly time scale at least 3 days in advance. The study indicates a potential role of the SCS SST in foreshadowing the biweekly intra-seasonal oscillation during the Indian summer monsoon period.

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Acknowledgements

The authors wish to thank the Editor and the two anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments and suggestions, which helped to improve the manuscript. The first author acknowledges IMD, NASA, WHOI OAFlux, NCEP-DOE Reanalysis Version 2 team and wavelet by ion research system for the kind support. The authors would also like to thank Prof. Gil Compo, Senior Research Scientist, CIRES University of Colorado for his valuable suggestions. The Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education (KLME1603) and the Jiangsu Provincial Government through the 2015 Jiangsu Program for Innovation Research and Entrepreneurship Groups provided the financial support. The figures were prepared using GrADS.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Marine Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST), Nanjing, People’s Republic of China

    B. H. Vaid

  2. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Dr. Homi Bhabha Road, Pune, India

    B. Preethi

  3. IITM, Pune, India

    R. H. Kripalani

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  1. B. H. Vaid
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Vaid, B.H., Preethi, B. & Kripalani, R.H. The Asymmetric Influence of the South China Sea Biweekly SST on the Abnormal Indian Monsoon Rainfall of 2002. Pure Appl. Geophys. 175, 4625–4642 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-018-1934-6

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