Tsunami Simulations in the Western Makran Using Hypothetical Heterogeneous Source Models from World’s Great Earthquakes
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The western segment of Makran subduction zone is characterized with almost no major seismicity and no large earthquake for several centuries. A possible episode for this behavior is that this segment is currently locked accumulating energy to generate possible great future earthquakes. Taking into account this assumption, a hypothetical rupture area is considered in the western Makran to set different tsunamigenic scenarios. Slip distribution models of four recent tsunamigenic earthquakes, i.e. 2015 Chile Mw 8.3, 2011 Tohoku-Oki Mw 9.0 (using two different scenarios) and 2006 Kuril Islands Mw 8.3, are scaled into the rupture area in the western Makran zone. The numerical modeling is performed to evaluate near-field and far-field tsunami hazards. Heterogeneity in slip distribution results in higher tsunami amplitudes. However, its effect reduces from local tsunamis to regional and distant tsunamis. Among all considered scenarios for the western Makran, only a similar tsunamigenic earthquake to the 2011 Tohoku-Oki event can re-produce a significant far-field tsunami and is considered as the worst case scenario. The potential of a tsunamigenic source is dominated by the degree of slip heterogeneity and the location of greatest slip on the rupture area. For the scenarios with similar slip patterns, the mean slip controls their relative power. Our conclusions also indicate that along the entire Makran coasts, the southeastern coast of Iran is the most vulnerable area subjected to tsunami hazard.
KeywordsTsunami hazard western Makran subduction zone scaled slip distributions heterogeneity numerical modeling
The authors would like to thank the developers of COMCOT program (Liu et al. 1998) for modeling tsunamis and also to thank the developers of GMT (Wessel and Smith 1991). They would also like to express their gratitude to the authors of the finite-fault models (Ji 2006; Hayes 2011; Wei et al. 2012; USGS 2015) used in this research for all their valuable efforts and making the models available. The authors would like to thank the editor, Alexander Rabinovich and two anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments and useful suggestions. The second author, ZHS, would like to acknowledge the financial support of University of Tehran for this research under Grant number 27875/01/10.
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