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Characterizing Aftershock Sequences of the Recent Strong Earthquakes in Central Italy

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Abstract

The recent strong earthquakes in Central Italy allow for a comparative analysis of their aftershocks from the viewpoint of the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes, USLE, which generalizes the Gutenberg–Richter relationship making use of naturally fractal distribution of earthquake sources of different size in a seismic region. In particular, we consider aftershocks as a sequence of avalanches in self-organized system of blocks-and-faults of the Earth lithosphere, each aftershock series characterized with the distribution of the USLE control parameter, η. We found the existence, in a long-term, of different, intermittent levels of rather steady seismic activity characterized with a near constant value of η, which switch, in mid-term, at times of transition associated with catastrophic events. On such a transition, seismic activity may follow different scenarios with inter-event time scaling of different kind, including constant, logarithmic, power law, exponential rise/decay or a mixture of those as observed in the case of the ongoing one associated with the three strong earthquakes in 2016. Evidently, our results do not support the presence of universality of seismic energy release, while providing constraints on modelling seismic sequences for earthquake physicists and supplying decision makers with information for improving local seismic hazard assessments.

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Acknowledgements

We thank Ilya Zaliapin of Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Nevada Reno for providing the Matlab code for problem-oriented seismic cluster analysis and the two anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments and suggestions that helped improving justification of our conclusions. The study was supported by the Russian Science Foundation Grant Nos. 15-17-30020 (in the part of statistical analysis of the best fit modeling) and 16-17-00093 (in application of USLE based methodologies).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory & Mathematical Geophysics, RAS, Moscow, Russian Federation

    Vladimir G. Kossobokov & Anastasia K. Nekrasova

  2. Geophysical Center, RAS, Moscow, Russian Federation

    Vladimir G. Kossobokov

  3. Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, Paris, France

    Vladimir G. Kossobokov

  4. International Seismic Safety Organization, Arsita, Italy

    Vladimir G. Kossobokov

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  1. Vladimir G. Kossobokov
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Correspondence to Vladimir G. Kossobokov or Anastasia K. Nekrasova.

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Kossobokov, V.G., Nekrasova, A.K. Characterizing Aftershock Sequences of the Recent Strong Earthquakes in Central Italy. Pure Appl. Geophys. 174, 3713–3723 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-017-1624-9

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