Advertisement

Pure and Applied Geophysics

, Volume 174, Issue 7, pp 2793–2802 | Cite as

Time Series Analysis of Soil Radon Data Using Multiple Linear Regression and Artificial Neural Network in Seismic Precursory Studies

  • S. Singh
  • H. P. Jaishi
  • R. P. Tiwari
  • R. C. TiwariEmail author
Article

Abstract

This paper reports the analysis of soil radon data recorded in the seismic zone-V, located in the northeastern part of India (latitude 23.73N, longitude 92.73E). Continuous measurements of soil-gas emission along Chite fault in Mizoram (India) were carried out with the replacement of solid-state nuclear track detectors at weekly interval. The present study was done for the period from March 2013 to May 2015 using LR-115 Type II detectors, manufactured by Kodak Pathe, France. In order to reduce the influence of meteorological parameters, statistical analysis tools such as multiple linear regression and artificial neural network have been used. Decrease in radon concentration was recorded prior to some earthquakes that occurred during the observation period. Some false anomalies were also recorded which may be attributed to the ongoing crustal deformation which was not major enough to produce an earthquake.

Keywords

Radon measurements SSNTDs MLR and ANN analysis earthquake precursors statistical algorithm meteorological parameters 

Notes

Acknowledgements

This work has been funded by the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Govt. of India, New Delhi, in the form of Major project vide Sanction Order No. MoES/P.O.(Seismo)/1(167)/2013 dated 10.12.2013.

References

  1. Arafa, W. (2002). Permeability of radon-222 through some materials. Radiation Measurements, 35, 207–211.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Chyi, L. L., Quick, T. J., Yang, T. F., & Chen, C. H. (2005). Soil gas radon spectra and earthquakes. Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, 16, 763–774.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Dewey, J. F., & Bird, J. M. (1970). Mountain belts and the new global tectonics. Journal of Geophysical Research, 75, 2625–2647.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Dobrovolsky, I. P., Zubkov, S. I., & Miachkin, V. I. (1979). Estimation of the size of earthquake preparation zones. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 117, 1025–1044.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Etiope, G., & Lombardi, S. (1995). Evidence for radon transport by carrier gas through faulted clays in Italy. Journal of Radioanalytical and Nuclear Chemistry, 193, 291–300.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Fu, C. C., Yang, T. F., Walia, V., & Cheng, C. H. (2005). Reconnaissance of soil gas composition over the buried fault and fracture zone in southern Taiwan. Geochemical Journal, 39, 427–439.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Ghosh, D., Deb, A., & Sengupta, R. (2009). Anomalous radon emission as precursor of earthquakes. Journal of Applied Geophysics, 69, 67–81.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Giacomino, A., Abollino, O., Malandrino, M., & Mentasti, E. (2011). The role chemometrics in single and sequential extraction assays: A review. Part II. Cluster analysis, multiple linear regression, mixture resolution, experimental design and other techniques. Analytica Chimica Acta, 688, 122–139.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Guerra, M., & Lombardi, S. (2001). Soil-gas method for tracing neotectonic faults in clay basin: The Pisticci field (southern Italy). Tectonophysics, 339, 511–522.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Haykin, S. (1994). Neural networks: A comprehensive foundation. New Jersey: Prentice-Hall Inc.Google Scholar
  11. Hocking, R. R. (1976). The analysis and selection of variables in linear regression. Biometrics, 32, 1–49.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Igarashi, G., Sacki, S., Takahata, N., Sumikawa, K., Tasaka, S., Sasaki, Y., et al. (1995). Groundwater radon anomaly before the Kobe earthquake in Japan. Science, 269, 60–61.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Jaacks, J. A. (1984). Meteorological influence upon mercury, radon and helium soil gas emission. Ph.D. Thesis, Colorado School of mines.Google Scholar
  14. Jaishi, H. P., Singh, S., Tiwari, R. P., & Tiwari, R. C. (2013). Radon and thoron anomalies along Mat fault in Mizoram, India. Journal of Earth System Science, 122, 1507–1513.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Jaishi, H. P., Singh, S., Tiwari, R. P., & Tiwari, R. C. (2014a). Correlation of radon anomalies with seismic events along Mat fault in Serchhip District, Mizoram, India. Applied Radiation and Isotopes, 86, 79–84.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Jaishi, H. P., Singh, S., Tiwari, R. P., & Tiwari, R. C. (2014b). Temporal variation of soil radon and thoron concentrations in Mizoram (India), associated with earthquakes. Natural Hazards, 72, 443–454.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Jönsson, G. (1981). The angular sensitivity of Kodak LR-film to alpha particles. Nuclear Instruments and Methods in Physics Research, 190, 407–414.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. King, C. Y. (1986). Gas geochemistry applied to earthquake prediction: An overview. Journal of Geophysical Research, 91, 12269–12281.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. King, C.-Y., & Wakita, H. (1981). Anomalous radon changes in an artesian well and possible relation to earthquake (abstract). Earthquake Notes, 52(1), 71.Google Scholar
  20. Kraner, H. W., Schroeder, G. L., & Evans, R. D. (1964). Measurement of the effects of atmospheric variables on radon-222 flux and soil-gas concentrations. In L. A. S. Adams & W. M. Lowder (Eds.), Symposium Proceedings of Natural Radiation Environment, Houston, Texas (pp. 191–214), 10–13 April 1963. University of Chicago Press: Chicago.Google Scholar
  21. Külahci, F., & Çiçek, Ş. (2014). Time-series analysis of water and soil radon anomalies to identify micro-macro-earthqaukes. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 8(7), 5239–5246.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Külahci, F., Inceoz, M., Dogru, M., Aksoy, E., & Baykara, O. (2009). Artificial neural network model for earthquake prediction with radon monitoring. Applied Radiation and Isotopes, 67, 212–219.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Külahci, F., & Şen, Z. (2014). On the correction of spatial and statistical uncertainties in systematic measurements of 222Rn for earthquake prediction. Surveys in Geophysics, 35(2), 449–478.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Kuo, T., Su, C., Chang, C., Lin, C., Cheng, W., Liang, H., et al. (2010). Application of recurrent radon precursors for forecasting large earthquakes (Mw > 6.0) near Antung, Taiwan. Radiation Measurements, 45, 1049–1054.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Latt, Z. Z., & Wittenberg, H. (2014). Improving flood forecasting in a developing country: A comparative study of stepwise multiple linear regression and artificial neural network. Water Resources Management, 28, 2109–2128.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Liu, K. K., Yui, T. F., Tasi, Y. B., & Teng, T. L. (1984). Variation of radon content in groundwater and possible correlation with seismic activities in the northern Taiwan. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 122, 231–244.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Mayya, Y. S., Eappen, K. P., & Nambi, K. S. V. (1998). Methodology for mixed field inhalation dosimetry in monazite areas using a twin-cup dosimeter with three track detectors. Radiation Protection Dosimetry, 77, 177–184.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Negarestani, A., Setayeshi, S., Ghannadi-Maragheh, M., & Akashe, B. (2002). Layered neural networks based analysis of radon concentration and environmental parameters in earthquake prediction. Journal of Environmental Radioactivity, 62, 225–233.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Price, J. G., Christensen, L., Hess, R., La Pointe, D. D., Ramelli, A. R., Desilets, M., et al. (1994). Radon in outdoor air in Nevada. Health Physics, 66, 433–438.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Ramachandran, T. V., Lalit, B. Y., & Mishra, U. C. (1987). Measurement of radon permeability through some membranes. International Journal of Radiation Applications and Instrumentation Part D Nuclear Tracks and Radiation Measurements, 13, 81–84.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Rannou, A. (1989). The bare detector and results of indoor radon survey in France. In Proceedings of International Workshop on Radon monitoring in Radioprotection, Environmental Radioactivity and Earth Science (pp. 145–222).Google Scholar
  32. Rawat, U. S., & Parihar, C. P. S. (2001). Geoenvironment of Mizoram and its implication in development. In Proceedings of National SymposiumRole of Earth Sciences in Integrated Development and Related Societal Issues, GSISP–65 (I), 185–190.Google Scholar
  33. Sen, Z., & Birpinar, M. E. (2004). Water resources assessment, IACWRA 2004 Lecture Notes (p. 100). Istanbul: Water Engineering Research and Development Center.Google Scholar
  34. Singh, S., Jaishi, H.P., Tiwari, R.P., Tiwari, R.C. (2014). Variations of soil radon concentrations along Chite Fault in Aizawl district, Mizoram, India. Radiation Protection Dosimetry. doi: 10.1093/rpd/ncu221.
  35. Singh, M., Kumar, M., Jain, R. K., & Chatrath, R. P. (1999). Radon in ground water related to seismic events. Radiation Measurements, 30, 465–469.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Stranden, E., Kolstad, A. K., & Lind, B. (1984). The influence of moisture and temperature on radon exhalation. Radiation Protection Dosimetry, 7, 55–58.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. The Mathworks Inc. (2007). Version R2007a. New Jersey: Prentice Hall.Google Scholar
  38. Virk, H. S., Walia, V., & Kumar, N. (2001). Radon/helium precursory signals of Chamoli earthquakes, Garhwal Himalaya, India. Journal of Geodynamics, 31, 201–210.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Virk, H. S., Walia, V., Sharma, A. K., Kumar, N., & Kumar, R. (2000). Correlation of radon with microsiesmic events in Kangra and Chamba Valleys of N-W Himalaya. Geofisica Internacional, 39, 221–227.Google Scholar
  40. Walia, V., Virk, H. S., Yang, T. F., Mahajan, S., Walia, M., & Bajwa, B. S. (2005). Earthquake prediction studies using radon as a precursor in NW Himalayas, India: A case study. Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, 16, 775–804.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Wattananikorn, K., Kanaree, M., & Wiboolsake, S. (1998). Soil gas radon as an earthquake precursor: Some considerations on data improvement. Radiation Measurements, 29, 593–598.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Zurada, J. M. (1992). Introduction to artificial neural systems (p. 683). St. Paul: West Publishing Company.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer International Publishing 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  • S. Singh
    • 1
  • H. P. Jaishi
    • 1
  • R. P. Tiwari
    • 2
  • R. C. Tiwari
    • 1
    Email author
  1. 1.Department of PhysicsMizoram UniversityAizawlIndia
  2. 2.Department of GeologyMizoram UniversityAizawlIndia

Personalised recommendations