Test of the Predictability of the PI Method for Recent Large Earthquakes in and near Tibetan Plateau
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Five large earthquakes of M ≥ 7.0 (based on the magnitude scale of the China Earthquake Networks Center) occurred in and near the Tibetan Plateau during 2008–2014, including the Wenchuan M8.0 earthquake on May 12, 2008 (BJT). In this paper, the Tibetan Plateau was chosen to be the study region, and calculating parameters of pattern informatics (PI) method with grid of 1° × 1° and forecasting time interval of 8 years were employed for the retrospective study according to the previous studies for M7 earthquake forecasting. The sliding step of forecasting interval was 1 year, and the hotspot diagrams of each forecasting interval since 2008 were obtained year by year. The relationships among the hotspots and the M ≥ 7.0 earthquakes that occurred during the forecast intervals were studied. The predictability of PI method was tested by verification of receiver-operating characteristic curve (ROC) and R score. The results show that the successive obvious hotspots occurred during the sliding forecasting intervals before four of the five earthquakes, while hotspots only occurred in one forecasted interval without successive evolution process before one of the five earthquakes, which indicates that four of the five large earthquakes could be forecasted well by PI method. Test results of the predictability of PI method by ROC and R score show that positive prospect of PI method could be expected for long-term earthquake forecast.
KeywordsPI method Earthquake predictability ROC test R score test Earthquake-forecasting efficacy Tibetan Plateau
The authors gratefully acknowledge the support from the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology under Grants No. 2010DFB20190 and No. 2012BAK19B02-05. The authors also thank Prof. J.B. Rundle for certain valuable comments on PI methods and the anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments on the paper. The authors also offer their thanks to CENC (China Earthquake Networks Center) for the earthquake catalogue.
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