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Pure and Applied Geophysics

, Volume 174, Issue 6, pp 2371–2380 | Cite as

Can Apparent Stress be Used to Time-Dependent Seismic Hazard Assessment or Earthquake Forecast? An Ongoing Approach in China

  • Zhongliang Wu
  • Changsheng Jiang
  • Shengfeng Zhang
Article
  • 220 Downloads

Abstract

The approach in China since the last 1.5 decade for using apparent stress in time-dependent seismic hazard assessment or earthquake forecast is summarized. Retrospective case studies observe that apparent stress exhibits short-term increase, with time scale of several months, before moderate to strong earthquakes in a large area surrounding the ‘target earthquake’. Apparent stress is also used to estimate the tendency of aftershock activity. The concept relating apparent stress indirectly to stress level is used to understand the properties of some ‘precursory’ anomalies. Meanwhile, different opinions were reported. Problems in the calculation also existed for some cases. Moreover, retrospective studies have the limitation in their significance as compared to forward forecast test. Nevertheless, this approach, seemingly uniquely carried out in a large scale in mainland China, provides the earthquake catalogs for the predictive analysis of seismicity with an additional degree of freedom, deserving a systematic review and reflection.

Keywords

Apparent stress time-dependent seismic hazard earthquake forecast earthquake sequence mainland China 

Notes

Acknowledgments

Thanks to Guest Editor Dr. Yongxian (Angie) Zhang (CENC, Beijing) for invitation and suggestion to write a review article, to Prof. Dr. Peter Bormann (GFZ, Potsdam), Prof. Yun-tai Chen (CEA, Beijing), Dr. G. L. Choy (NEIC, USGS, Golden), and Prof. Yaolin Shi (UCAS, Beijing) for valuable advices related to apparent stress during the past two decades, to Drs. Yan’e Li, Yingchun Li, Tengfei Ma, and Xuerong Yao for assistance in collecting the data, and to the anonymous reviewers for their encouragement and valuable suggestions for the revision.

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Copyright information

© Springer International Publishing 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  • Zhongliang Wu
    • 1
  • Changsheng Jiang
    • 1
  • Shengfeng Zhang
    • 1
    • 2
  1. 1.Institute of GeophysicsChina Earthquake AdministrationBeijingChina
  2. 2.Earthquake Administration of Shandong Province JinanChina

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