Reducing False Alarms of Annual Forecast in the Central China North–South Seismic Belt by Reverse Tracing of Precursors (RTP) Using the Pattern Informatics (PI) ‘Hotspots’
- 150 Downloads
The annual consultation on the likelihood of earthquakes in the next year, the ‘Annual Consultation Meeting’, has been one of the most important forward forecast experiments organized by the China Earthquake Administration (CEA) since the 1970s, in which annual alarm regions are identified by an expert panel considering multi-disciplinary ‘anomalies’. In such annual forecasts, one of the problems in need of further technical solution is its false alarms. To tackle this problem, the concept of ‘reverse tracing of precursors (RTP)’ is used to the annual consultation, as a temporal continuation and spatial extension of the work of Zhao et al. (Pure Appl Geophys 167:783–800, 2010). The central China north–south seismic belt (in connection to the CSEP testing region) is selected as the testing region of such an approach. Applying the concept of RTP, for an annual alarm region delineated by the Annual Consultation Meeting, the distribution of ‘hotspots’ of the pattern informatics (PI), which targets the 5-year-scale seismic hazard, is considered. The ‘hit’, or successful forecast, of the annual seismic hazard is shown to be related to the sufficient coverage of the ‘hotspots’ within the annual alarm region. The ratio of the areas of the ‘hotspots’ over the whole area of the annual alarm region is thus used to identify the false alarms which have few ‘hotspots’. The results of the years 2004–2012 show that using a threshold of 17 % can reduce 34 % (13 among 38) of the false alarms without losing the successful hit (being 6 in that period).
KeywordsAnnual consultation false alarm reverse tracing of precursors (RTP) pattern informatics (PI) hotspots the central China north–south seismic belt
Thanks to Prof. J.B. Rundle and Prof. C.C. Chen, for guidance and helps in the PI calculation, to Dr. J.C. Zhuang for helpful discussion in revising the manuscript, and to the China Earthquake Networks Center (CENC) for providing the earthquake catalogue and the data of the Annual Consultation. Thanks are also to Prof. X.C. Yin and Prof. Y.X. (Angie) Zhang for invitation to participate in the 2015 ACES Workshop in Chengdu, and to the CSEP-China project for financial support.
- Chen, C. C., Rundle, J. B., Holliday, J. R., Nanjo, K. Z., Turcotte, D. L., Li, S. C. and Tiampo, K. F., 2005, The 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake as a typical example of seismic activation and quiescence. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32: L22315, doi: 10.1029/2005GL023991.
- Cho, N. F. and Tiampo, K. F., 2012, Effects of location errors in pattern informatics. Pure Appl. Geophys., 170: 185–196, doi: 10.1007/s00024-011-0448-2.
- Holliday, J. R., Nanjo, K. Z., Tiampo, K. F., Rundle, J. B. and Turcotte, D. L., 2005, Earthquake forecasting and its verification. Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 12: 965–977, doi:arXiv:cond-mat/0508476.
- Holliday, J. R., Rundle, J. B., Tiampo, K. F. and Turcotte, D. L., 2006a, Using earthquake intensities to forecast earthquake occurrence times. Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 13: 585–593.Google Scholar
- Holliday, J. R., Rundlea, J. B., Tiampo, K. F., Kleind, W. and Donnellane, A., 2006b, Modification of the pattern informatics method for forecasting large earthquake events using complex eigenfactors. Tectonophysics, 413: 87–91.Google Scholar
- Holliday, J. R., Chen, C. C., Tiampo, K. F., Rundle, J. B., Turcotte, D. L. and Donnellan, A., 2007, A RELM earthquake forecast based on pattern informatics. Seism. Res. Lett., 78: 87–93.Google Scholar
- Jiang, C. S. and Wu, Z. L., 2008, Retrospective forecasting test of a statistical physics model for earthquakes in Sichuan-Yunnan region. Sci. China Ser. D, 51: 1401–1410.Google Scholar
- Jiang, C. S. and Wu, Z. L., 2010, PI forecast for the Sichuan-Yunnan region: retrospective test after the May 12, 2008, Wenchuan earthquake. Pure Appl. Geophys., 167: 751–761, doi: 10.1007/s00024-010-0070-8.
- Jiang, C. S. and Wu, Z. L., 2011a, PI forecast with or without de-clustering: an experiment for the Sichuan-Yunnan region. Nat. Hazard Earth Sys., 11: 697–706, doi: 10.5194/nhess-11-697-2011.
- Jiang, C. S. and Wu, Z. L., 2011b, Intermediate-term medium-range precursory accelerating seismicity prior to the 12 May 2008, Wenchuan earthquake. Pure Appl. Geophys., 170: 209–219, doi: 10.1007/s00024-011-0413-0.
- Jiang, H., Wu, Z. L., Ma, T. F. and Jiang, C. S., 2013, Retrospective test of the PI forecast: case study of the April 20, 2013, Lushan, Sichuan, China, M S 7.0 earthquake. Physics, 42: 334–340, doi: 10.7693/wl2013504 (in Chinese with English abstract).
- Kawamura, M., Wu, Y. H., Kudo, T. and Chen, C. C., 2013, Precursory migration of anomalous seismic activity revealed by the pattern informatics method: A case study of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, Japan. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer., 103: 1171–1180.Google Scholar
- Keilis-Borok, V., Shebalin, P., Gabrielov, A. and Turcotte, D., 2004, Reverse tracing of short-term earthquake precursors. Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 145: 75–85.Google Scholar
- Ma, H. S., Liu, J., Wu, H. and Li, J. F., 2004, Scientific evaluation of annual earthquake prediction efficiency based on R-value. Earthquake, 24: 31–37 (in Chinese with English abstract).Google Scholar
- Mignan, A., Jiang, C. S., Zechar, D. J., Wiemer, S., Wu, Z. L. and Huang, Z. B., 2013, Completeness of the mainland China earthquake catalog and implications for the setup of the China earthquake forecast testing center. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer., 103: 845–859, doi: 10.1785/0120120052.
- Molchan, G. M., 1997, Earthquake prediction as a decision-making problem. Pure Appl. Geophys., 149: 233–247.Google Scholar
- Nanjo, K. Z., Rundle, J. B., Holliday, J. R. and Turcotte, D. L., 2006a, Pattern informatics and its application for optimal forecasting of large earthquakes in Japan. Pure Appl. Geophys, 163: 2417–2432, doi: 10.1007/s00024-006-0130-2.
- Nanjo, K. Z., Holliday, J. R., Chen, C. C., Rundle, J. B. and Turcotte, D. L., 2006b, Application of a modified pattern informatics method to forecasting the locations of future large earthquakes in the central Japan. Tectonophysics, 424: 351–366.Google Scholar
- Rundle, J. B., Turcotte, D. L., Shcherbakov, R., Klein, W. and Sammis, C., 2003, Statistical physics approach to understanding the multiscale dynamics of earthquake fault systems. Rev. Geophys., 41: 1019, doi: 10.1029/2003RG000135.
- Shebalin, P., Keilis-Borok, V., Zaliapin, I., Uyeda, S., Nagao, T. and Tsybin, N., 2004, Advance short-term prediction of the large Tokachi-oki earthquake, September 25, 2003, M = 8.1 A case history. Earth Planets Space, 56: 715–724.Google Scholar
- Shebalin, P., Keilis-Borok, V., Gabrielov, A., Zaliapin, I. and Turcotte, D., 2006, Short-term earthquake prediction by reverse analysis of lithosphere dynamics. Tectonophysics, 413: 63–75.Google Scholar
- Shi, Y. J., Wu, Z. L. and Bai, L., 2004, Evaluation of annual prediction of seismicity tendency using Pearson test, Journal of the Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, 21: 248–253 (in Chinese with English abstract).Google Scholar
- Shi, Y. L., Liu, J. and Zhang, G. M., 2000, The evaluation of Chinese annual earthquake prediction in the 90 s. Journal of Graduate School Academia Sinica, 17: 63–69 (in Chinese with English abstract).Google Scholar
- Shi, Y. L., Liu, J. and Zhang, G. M., 2001, An evaluation of Chinese annual earthquake predictions, 1990–1998. J. Appl. Probab., 38A: 222–231.Google Scholar
- Su, Y. J., Li, Y. L., Li, Z. H., Yi, G. X. and Liu, L. F., 2003, Analysis of minimum complete magnitude of earthquake catalog in Sichuan-Yunnan region. Journal of Seismological Research, 26: 10–16 (in Chinese with English abstract).Google Scholar
- Swets, J. A., 1973, The relative operating characteristic in psychology. Science, 182: 990–1000.Google Scholar
- Turcotte, D. L., 1992, Fractals and Chaos in Geology and Geophysics. Cambridge: Cambridge Univ. Press.Google Scholar
- Wang, H. T., 2005, Some preliminary think on prediction of annual seismic risk region, Recent Developments in World Seismology, 317: 103–105 (in Chinese with English abstract).Google Scholar
- Wu, F. T., 1997, The Annual Earthquake Prediction Conference in China (National Consultative Meeting on Seismic Tendency). Pure Appl. Geophys., 149: 249–264.Google Scholar
- Wu, Y.-M. and Chen, C. C., 2007, Seismic reversal pattern for the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, M W 7.6 earthquake. Tectonophysics, 429: 125–132, doi: 10.1029/2008GL035215.
- Wu, Y. H., Chen, C. C. and Rundle, J. B., 2008a, Detecting precursory earthquake migration patterns using the pattern informatics method. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35: L19304, doi: 10.1029/2008GL035215.
- Wu, Y. H., Chen, C. C. and Rundle, J. B., 2008b, Precursory seismic activation of the Pingtung (Taiwan) offshore doublet earthquakes on 26 December 2006: A pattern informatics analysis. Terre. Atmos. Ocean Sci., 19: 743–749.Google Scholar
- Wu, Z. L., 2014, Chapter16: Duties of earthquake forecast: cases and lessons in China. In: Wyss, M. (eds.), Earthquake Hazard, Risk, and Disasters, Amsterdam: Elsevier, 431–448.Google Scholar
- Wu, Z. L., Liu, J., Zhu, C. Z., Jiang, C. S. and Huang, F. Q., 2007, Annual consultation on the likelihood of earthquakes in continental China: Its scientific and practical merits. Earthquake Research in China, 21: 365–371.Google Scholar
- Wu, Z. L., Ma, T. F., Jiang, H. and Jiang, C. S., 2013, Multi-scale seismic hazard and risk in the China mainland with implication for the preparedness, mitigation, and management of earthquake disasters: An overview. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 4: 21–33.Google Scholar
- Xia, C. Y., Zhang, Y. X., Zhang, X. T. and Wu, Y. J., 2015, Predictability test for pattern information method by two M S 7.3 Yutian, Xinjiang, earthquakes. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 37: 312–322. doi:10.11939/jass.2015.02.011 (in Chinese with English abstract).Google Scholar
- Xu, S. X., 1989, The evaluation of earthquake prediction ability. In: Department of Science, Technology and Monitoring, State Seismological Bureau (eds.), The Practical Research Papers on Earthquake Prediction Methods (Seismicity Section). Beijing: Seismological Press, 586–589 (in Chinese).Google Scholar
- Xu, X. W., Zhang, P. Z., Wen, X. Z., Qin, Z. L., Chen, G. H. and Zhu, A. L., 2005, Features of active tectonics and recurrence behaviors of strong earthquake in the western Sichuan Province and its adjacent regions. Seismology and Geology, 27: 446–461 (in Chinese with English abstract).Google Scholar
- Yi, G. X., Wen, X. Z. and Xu, X. W., 2002, Study on recurrence behaviors of strong earthquakes for several entireties of active fault zones in Sichuan-Yunnan region. Earthquake Research in China, 18: 267–276 (in Chinese with English abstract).Google Scholar
- Yi, G. X., Wen, X. Z., Wang, S. W., Long, F. and Fan, J., 2006, Study on fault sliding behaviors and strong-earthquake risk of the Longmenshan-Minshan fault zones from current seismicity parameters. Earthquake Research in China, 22: 117–125 (in Chinese with English abstract).Google Scholar
- Zechar, J. D. and Zhuang, J. C., 2010, Risk and return: evaluating Reverse Tracing of Precursors earthquake predictions. Geophysical Journal International, 182: 1319–1326.Google Scholar
- Zhang, G. M., Liu, J. and Shi, Y. L., 2002, An scientific evaluation of annual earthquake predication ability. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 15: 550–558.Google Scholar
- Zhang, S. F., Wu, Z. L. and Jiang, C. S., 2016, The central China north-south seismic belt: seismicity, ergodicity, and five-year PI forecast in testing. Pure Appl. Geophys., 173: 245–254, doi: 10.1007/s00024-015-1123-9.
- Zhang, X. T., Zhang, Y. X., Xia, C. Y., Wu, Y. J. and Yu, H. Z., 2014, Anomalous seismic activities in the Sichuan-Yunnan region and its adjacent areas before the Lushan M S 7.0 earthquake by the pattern informatics method. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 36: 780–789, doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-3782.2014.05.003.
- Zhang, Y. X., Zhang, X. T., Yin, X. C. and Wu, Y. J., 2010, Study on the forecast effects of PI method to the north and southwest China. Concurrency and Computation: Practice & Experience, 22: 1559–1568.Google Scholar
- Zhang, Y. X., Zhang, X. T., Wu, Y. J. and Yin, X. C., 2013, Retrospective study on the predictability pattern informatics to the Wenchuan M8.0 and Yutian M7.3 Earthquakes. Pure Appl. Geophys., 170: 197–208.Google Scholar
- Zhao, Y. Z., Wu, Z. L., Jiang, C. S. and Zhu, C. Z., 2010, Reverse tracing of precursors applied to the annual earthquake forecast: Retrospective test of the Annual Consultation in the Sichuan-Yunnan region of southwest China. Pure Appl. Geophys., 167: 783–800, doi: 10.1007/s00024-010-0077-1.
- Zheng, Z. B., Liu, J., Li, G. F., Qian, J. D. and Wang, X. Q., 2000, Statistical simulation analysis of the correlation between the annual estimated key regions with a certain seismic risk and the earthquakes in China. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 13: 575–584.Google Scholar
- Zhuang, J. C. and Jiang, C. S., 2012, Scoring annual earthquake predictions in China. Tectonophysics, 524–525: 155–164.Google Scholar