Advertisement

Pure and Applied Geophysics

, Volume 173, Issue 4, pp 1379–1402 | Cite as

Assessment of South Asian Summer Monsoon Simulation in CMIP5-Coupled Climate Models During the Historical Period (1850–2005)

  • Venkatraman Prasanna
Article

Abstract

This paper evaluates the performance of 29 state-of-art CMIP5-coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCM) in their representation of regional characteristics of monsoon simulation over South Asia. The AOGCMs, despite their relatively coarse resolution, have shown some reasonable skill in simulating the mean monsoon and precipitation variability over the South Asian monsoon region. However, considerable biases do exist with reference to the observed precipitation and also inter-model differences. The monsoon rainfall and surface flux bias with respect to the observations from the historical run for the period nominally from 1850 to 2005 are discussed in detail. Our results show that the coupled model simulations over South Asia exhibit large uncertainties from one model to the other. The analysis clearly brings out the presence of large systematic biases in coupled simulation of boreal summer precipitation, evaporation, and sea surface temperature (SST) in the Indian Ocean, often exceeding 50 % of the climatological values. Many of the biases are common to many models. Overall, the coupled models need further improvement in realistically portraying boreal summer monsoon over the South Asian monsoon region.

Keywords

CMIP5-coupled climate models climate change over South Asia climate model bias 

Notes

Acknowledgments

The author would like to acknowledge the Director, APEC Climate Center (APCC), Busan, South Korea, for providing facilities to carry out this work and many modeling centers for providing model simulation for about 150 years. The author would also like to acknowledge the CMIP5 for archiving and providing the large datasets through their website (http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/) and the comments from the anonymous reviewers for improving the paper. The diagrams used for this study have been prepared using the free software packages such as GrADS, XMGRACE, Intel Fortran and computational work done on the Cent-OS operating system environment.

References

  1. Adler RF, Huffman GJ, Chang A, Ferraro R, Xie P, Janowiak J, Rudolf B, Schneider U, Curtis S, Bolvin D, Gruber A, Susskind J, Arkin P, Nelkin E (2003) The Version 2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), Monthly Precipitation Analysis (1979-Present). J Hydrometeor 4:1147–1167Google Scholar
  2. Ailikun B, Yasunari T (2001) ENSO and Asian summer monsoon: persistence and transitivity in the seasonal march. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan 79:145–159Google Scholar
  3. Annamalai H, Sperber KR (2005) Regional heat sources and the active and break phases of boreal summer intraseasonal (30-50 day) variability. J Atmos Sci 62:2726–2748Google Scholar
  4. Annamalai H, Hamilton K, Sperber KR (2007) South Asian summer monsoon and its relationship with ENSO in the IPCC AR4 simulations. J Clim 20:1071–1092Google Scholar
  5. Bollasina M, Nigam S (2008) Indian Ocean SST, evaporation, and precipitation during the South Asian summer monsoon in IPCC-AR4 coupled simulations. Clim Dyn 33:1017–1033Google Scholar
  6. Chang CP, Harr P, Ju J (2001) Possible roles of Atlantic circulations on the weakening Indian monsoon rainfall-ENSO relationship. Journal of Climate 14:2376–2380Google Scholar
  7. Christensen JH, Hewitson B, Busuioc A, Chen A, Gao X, Held I, Jones R, Kolli RK, Kwon WT, Laprise R, Magaña Rueda V, Mearns L, Menendez CG, Raisanen J, Rinke A, Sarr A, Whetton P (2007) Regional Climate Projections Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In: S Solomon, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996 pGoogle Scholar
  8. Chaturvedi RK, Joshi J, Jayaraman M, Bala G, Ravindranath NH, (2012) Multi-model climate change projections for India under representative concentration pathways. Current Science 103(7), 791–802.Google Scholar
  9. Chen, HP, and JQ Sun, 2013: Projected change in East Asian summer monsoon precipitation under RCP scenario. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 121, 55–77.Google Scholar
  10. Covey C, AchutaRao KM, Cubasch U, Jones P, Lambert SJ, Mann ME, Phillips TJ, Taylor KE (2003) An overview of results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Glob Planet Change 37:103–133Google Scholar
  11. IPCC (1996) Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change Contribution of Working Group I to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In: Houghton JJ, MeiroFilho LG, Callander BA, Harris N, Kattenberg A, Maskell K (eds). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 572 ppGoogle Scholar
  12. IPCC (2001) Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In: Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ, Noguer M, VanderLinden PJ, Dai X, Maskell K, Jhonson CA(eds). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 881 ppGoogle Scholar
  13. IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In: S Solomon, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996 pGoogle Scholar
  14. Jourdain NC, SenGupta A, Taschetto AS, Ummenhofer CM, Moise A, Ashok K, (2013) The Indo-Australian monsoon and its relationship to ENSO and IOD in reanalysis data and the CMIP3/CMIP5 simulations. Clim Dyn 41(11), 3073–3102Google Scholar
  15. Kalnay E et al (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 77:437–471Google Scholar
  16. Kang IS, Jin K, Wang B, Lau KM, Shukla J, Krishnamurthy V, Schubert SD, Waliser DE, Stern WF, Kitoh A, Meehl GA, Kanamitsu M, Galin VY, Satyan V, Park CK, Liu Y (2002) Intercomparison of the climatological variations of Asian summer monsoon precipitation simulated by 10 GCMs. Clim Dyn 19:383–395Google Scholar
  17. Kang IS, Lee JY, Park CK (2004) Potential predictability of summer mean precipitation in a dynamical seasonal prediction system with systematic error correction. J Clim 17:834–844Google Scholar
  18. Kawamura R, Uemura K, Suppiah R (2005) On the recent change of the Indian summer monsoon-ENSO relationship. SOLA 1:201–204Google Scholar
  19. Kripalani RH, Oh JH, Kulkarni A, Sabade SS, Chaudhari HS (2007) South Asian summer monsoon precipitation variability: Coupled climate model simulations and projections under IPCC AR4. Theor Appl Climatol 90:133–159Google Scholar
  20. Krishna Kumar K, Rajagopalan B, Cane MA (1999) On the weakening relationship between the Indian monsoon and ENSO. Science 284:2156–2159.Google Scholar
  21. Kusunoki, S, and O Arakawa, (2012): Change in the precipitation intensity of the East Asian summer monsoon projected by the CMIP3 models. Clim. Dyn., 38:2055–2072.Google Scholar
  22. Lin JL (2007) The double-ITCZ problem in IPCC AR4 coupled GCMs: ocean-atmosphere feedback analysis. J Clim 20:4497–4525Google Scholar
  23. Meehl GA, Covey C, McAvaney B, Latif M, Stouffer RJ (2005) Overview of the coupled model intercomparison project. Bull Am Met Soc 86:89–93Google Scholar
  24. Onogi K, Koide H, Sakamoto M, Kobayashi S, Tsutsui J, Hatsushika H, Matsumoto T, Yamazaki N, Kamahori H, Takahashi K, Kato K, Ose T, Kadokura S, Wada K (2000) JRA-25; Japanese 25-year reanalysis progress and status. Quart J R Meteorol Soc 131:3259–3268Google Scholar
  25. Parthasarathy B, Munot AA, Kothwalae DR (1994) All India monthly and seasonal rainfall series—1871–1993. Theor Appl Climatol 49:217–224.Google Scholar
  26. Pant GB, Parthasarathy B (1981) Some aspects of an association between the southern oscillation and Indian summer monsoon. Arc Met Geophy Biok l B 29(2):245–252.Google Scholar
  27. Pant GB, Rupa Kumar K (1997) Climate of South Asia. Wiley, New York, pp 176–179Google Scholar
  28. Peixoto JP and Oort AH (1992) Physics of Climate. Amer Inst Phys 520 ppGoogle Scholar
  29. Prasanna V, Yasunari T (2008) Interannual variability of Atmospheric water balance over South peninsular India and Sri Lanka during North East Monsoon season. Intl J Climatol 28:1997–2009Google Scholar
  30. Prasanna V, Yasunari T (2009) Time-space characteristics of seasonal and interannual variations of atmospheric water balance over South Asia. J Meteor Soc Jpn 87:263–287Google Scholar
  31. Prasanna V, Yasunari T (2011) Simulated Changes in the atmospheric water balance over south Asia in the eight IPCC-AR4 coupled climate models. Theor and app clim, 104:139–158Google Scholar
  32. Preethi B, Kripalani RH, Krishna Kumar K (2010) Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability in global coupled ocean-atmospheric models. Climate Dynamics, DOI  10.1007/s00382-009-0657, 35:1521–1539
  33. Rajeevan M, Unnikrishnan CK, Preethi B (2011) Evaluation of the ENSEMBLES multi-model seasonal forecasts of the Indian Summer Monsoon Variability. Climate Dynamics, DOI  10.1007/s00382-011-1061-x.
  34. Rasmusson EM, Carpenter TH (1983) The relationship between eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures and rainfall over India and Sri Lanka. Mon Weather Rev 111:517–528Google Scholar
  35. Rayner NA, Parker DE, Horton EB, Folland CK, Alexander LV, Rowell DP, Kent EC, Kaplan A (2003) Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J. Geophys. Res. Vol. 108, No. D14, 4407Google Scholar
  36. Rupakumar K, Krishna Kumar K, Prasanna V, Kamala K, Deshpande NR, Patwardhan SK, Pant GB (2003) Future Climate Scenarios. In: Climate Change and India: Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation, Universities Press (India) Pvt Ltd, Hyderabad, Pages: 69–127.Google Scholar
  37. Sperber, KR, et al., 2012: The Asian summer monsoon: an intercomparison of CMIP5 vs. CMIP3 simulations of the late JRA-25. Clim. Dyn., doi: 10.1007/s00382-012-1607-6.
  38. Taylor K. E. et al. (2012) BAMS, An overview of the CMIP5 and the experiment design.Google Scholar
  39. Turner, A. G. and Annamalai, H. (2012) Climate change and the South Asian summer monsoon. Nature Climate Change, 2. pp. 587–595. ISSN 1758-678X doi: 10.1038/nclimate1495
  40. Ueda H, Iwai A, Kuwako K, Hori ME (2006) Impact of anthropogenic forcing on the Asian summer monsoon as simulated by 8 GCMs. Geophys Res Lett 33: doi: 10.1029/2005GL025336
  41. Uppala SM, Kallberg PW, Simmons AJ, Andrae U, da Costa Bechtold V, Fiorino M, Gibson JK, Haseler J, Hernandez A, Kelly GA, Li X, Onogi K, Saarinen S, Sokka N, Allan RP, Andersson E, Arpe K, Balmaseda MA, Beljaars ACM, van de Berg L, Bidlot J, Bormann N, Caires S, Chevallier F, Dethof A, Dragosavac M, Fisher M, Fuentes M, Hagemann S, Holm E, Hoskins BJ, Isaksen L, Janssen PAEM, Jenne R, McNally AP, Mahfouf JF, Morcrette JJ, Rayner NA, Saunders RW, Simon P, Sterl A, Trenberth KE, Untch A, vasiljevic D, Viterbo P, Woollen J (2005) The ERA-40 reanalysis. Quart J Roy Meteor Soc 131:2961–3012Google Scholar
  42. Waliser DE, Jin K, Kang IS, Stern WF, Schubert SD, Wu MLC, Lau KM, Lee MI, Krishnamurthy V, Kitoh A, Meehl GA, Galin VY, Satyan V, Mandke SK, Wu G, Liu Y, Park CK (2003) AGCM simulations of intra-seasonal variability associated with the Asian summer monsoon. Clim Dyn 21:423–446Google Scholar
  43. Waliser D, Seo KW, Schubert S, Njoku E (2007) Global water cycle agreement in the climate models assessed in the IPCC AR4. Geophys Res Lett 34:L16705Google Scholar
  44. Wang B, Kang IS, Lee JY (2004) Ensemble simulation of Asian–Australian monsoon variability by 11 AGCMs. J Clim 17:699–710Google Scholar
  45. Wu R, Kirtman BP (2003) On the impacts of the Indian summer monsoon on ENSO in a coupled GCM. Quat J Roy Meteor Soc 129:3439-3468Google Scholar
  46. Wu R, Kirtman BP (2007) Regimes of seasonal air–sea interaction and implications for performance of forced simulations. Clim Dyn 29:393–410Google Scholar
  47. Wu R, Kirtman BP, Pegion K (2006) Local air–sea relationship in observations and model simulations. J Clim 19:4914–4932Google Scholar
  48. Wu R, Kirtman BP, Pegion K (2007) Surface latent heat flux and its relationship with sea surface temperature in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System simulations and retrospective forecasts. Geophys Res Lett 34:L17712Google Scholar
  49. Yasunari T (1990) Impact of Indian monsoon on the coupled atmosphere/ocean systems in the tropical pacific. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 44:29–41Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Basel 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Climate Research DepartmentAPEC Climate Center (APCC)BusanSouth Korea

Personalised recommendations