Pure and Applied Geophysics

, Volume 173, Issue 4, pp 1379–1402 | Cite as

Assessment of South Asian Summer Monsoon Simulation in CMIP5-Coupled Climate Models During the Historical Period (1850–2005)

  • Venkatraman Prasanna


This paper evaluates the performance of 29 state-of-art CMIP5-coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCM) in their representation of regional characteristics of monsoon simulation over South Asia. The AOGCMs, despite their relatively coarse resolution, have shown some reasonable skill in simulating the mean monsoon and precipitation variability over the South Asian monsoon region. However, considerable biases do exist with reference to the observed precipitation and also inter-model differences. The monsoon rainfall and surface flux bias with respect to the observations from the historical run for the period nominally from 1850 to 2005 are discussed in detail. Our results show that the coupled model simulations over South Asia exhibit large uncertainties from one model to the other. The analysis clearly brings out the presence of large systematic biases in coupled simulation of boreal summer precipitation, evaporation, and sea surface temperature (SST) in the Indian Ocean, often exceeding 50 % of the climatological values. Many of the biases are common to many models. Overall, the coupled models need further improvement in realistically portraying boreal summer monsoon over the South Asian monsoon region.


CMIP5-coupled climate models climate change over South Asia climate model bias 



The author would like to acknowledge the Director, APEC Climate Center (APCC), Busan, South Korea, for providing facilities to carry out this work and many modeling centers for providing model simulation for about 150 years. The author would also like to acknowledge the CMIP5 for archiving and providing the large datasets through their website ( and the comments from the anonymous reviewers for improving the paper. The diagrams used for this study have been prepared using the free software packages such as GrADS, XMGRACE, Intel Fortran and computational work done on the Cent-OS operating system environment.


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© Springer Basel 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Climate Research DepartmentAPEC Climate Center (APCC)BusanSouth Korea

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