Advertisement

Pure and Applied Geophysics

, Volume 173, Issue 1, pp 165–172 | Cite as

Statistical Significance of Minimum of the Order Parameter Fluctuations of Seismicity Before Major Earthquakes in Japan

  • N. V. Sarlis
  • E. S. Skordas
  • S.-R. G. Christopoulos
  • P. A. Varotsos
Article

Abstract

In a previous publication, the seismicity of Japan from 1 January 1984 to 11 March 2011 (the time of the \(M9\) Tohoku earthquake occurrence) has been analyzed in a time domain called natural time \(\chi.\) The order parameter of seismicity in this time domain is the variance of \(\chi\) weighted for normalized energy of each earthquake. It was found that the fluctuations of the order parameter of seismicity exhibit 15 distinct minima—deeper than a certain threshold—1 to around 3 months before the occurrence of large earthquakes that occurred in Japan during 1984–2011. Six (out of 15) of these minima were followed by all the shallow earthquakes of magnitude 7.6 or larger during the whole period studied. Here, we show that the probability to achieve the latter result by chance is of the order of \(10^{-5}\). This conclusion is strengthened by employing also the receiver operating characteristics technique.

Keywords

Natural time analysis  Japan receiver operating characteristics Monte Carlo calculation fluctuations order parameter of seismicity 

References

  1. Abe S, Sarlis NV, Skordas ES, Tanaka HK, Varotsos PA (2005) Origin of the Usefulness of the Natural-Time Representation of Complex Time Series. Phys Rev Lett 94:170,601.Google Scholar
  2. Eichner JF, Kantelhardt JW, Bunde A, Havlin S (2007) Statistics of return intervals in long-term correlated records. Phys Rev E 75:011,128.Google Scholar
  3. Fawcett T (2006) An introduction to ROC analysis. Pattern Recogn Lett 27(8):861–874.Google Scholar
  4. Flores-Márquez E, Vargas C, Telesca L, Ramírez-Rojas A (2014) Analysis of the distribution of the order parameter of synthetic seismicity generated by a simple spring-block system with asperities. Physica A 393:508–512.Google Scholar
  5. Holliday JR, Rundle JB, Turcotte DL, Klein W, Tiampo KF, Donnellan A (2006) Space-time clustering and correlations of major earthquakes. Phys Rev Lett 97:238501.Google Scholar
  6. Huang Q (2008) Seismicity changes prior to the Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan, China. Geophys Res Lett 35:L23308.Google Scholar
  7. Huang Q (2011) Retrospective investigation of geophysical data possibly associated with the Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan, China. Journal of Asian Earth Sciences 41(45):421–427.Google Scholar
  8. Huang Q, Ding X (2012) Spatiotemporal variations of seismic quiescence prior to the 2011 M 9.0 Tohoku earthquake revealed by an improved region-time-length algorithm. Bull Seismol Soc Am 102:1878–1883.Google Scholar
  9. Kanamori H (1978) Quantification of earthquakes. Nature 271:411–414.Google Scholar
  10. Lennartz S, Livina VN, Bunde A, Havlin S (2008) Long-term memory in earthquakes and the distribution of interoccurrence times. EPL 81:69,001.Google Scholar
  11. Lennartz S, Bunde A, Turcotte DL (2011) Modelling seismic catalogues by cascade models: Do we need long-term magnitude correlations? Geophys J Int 184:1214–1222.Google Scholar
  12. Lippiello E, de Arcangelis L, Godano C (2009) Role of static stress diffusion in the spatiotemporal organization of aftershocks. Phys Rev Lett 103:038501.Google Scholar
  13. Lippiello E, Godano C, de Arcangelis L (2012) The earthquake magnitude is influenced by previous seismicity. Geophys Res Lett 39:L05309.Google Scholar
  14. Mann HB, Whitney DR (1947) On a test of whether one of two random variables is stochastically larger than the other. Ann Math Statist 18:50–60.Google Scholar
  15. Mason SJ, Graham NE (2002) Areas beneath the relative operating characteristics (ROC) and relative operating levels (ROL) curves: Statistical significance and interpretation. Quart J Roy Meteor Soc 128:2145–2166.Google Scholar
  16. Ramírez-Rojas AA, Flores-Márquez E (2013) Order parameter analysis of seismicity of the Mexican Pacific coast. Physica A 392(10):2507–2512.Google Scholar
  17. Rundle JB, Holliday JR, Graves WR, Turcotte DL, Tiampo KF, Klein W (2012) Probabilities for large events in driven threshold systems. Phys Rev E 86:021106.Google Scholar
  18. Sarlis NV (2011) Magnitude correlations in global seismicity. Phys Rev E 84:022101.Google Scholar
  19. Sarlis NV, Christopoulos SRG (2012) Natural time analysis of the Centennial Earthquake Catalog. CHAOS 22:023123.Google Scholar
  20. Sarlis NV, Christopoulos SRG (2014) Visualization of the significance of Receiver Operating Characteristics based on confidence ellipses. Comput Phys Commun 185:1172–1176.Google Scholar
  21. Sarlis NV, Skordas ES, Lazaridou MS, Varotsos PA (2008) Investigation of seismicity after the initiation of a Seismic Electric Signal activity until the main shock. Proc Japan Acad, Ser B 84:331–343.Google Scholar
  22. Sarlis NV, Skordas ES, Varotsos PA (2010) Order parameter fluctuations of seismicity in natural time before and after mainshocks. EPL 91:59,001.Google Scholar
  23. Sarlis NV, Skordas ES, Varotsos PA, Nagao T, Kamogawa M, Tanaka H, Uyeda S (2013) Minimum of the order parameter fluctuations of seismicity before major earthquakes in Japan. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 110(34):13,734–13,738, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1312740110 .
  24. Telesca L (2010) Analysis of italian seismicity by using a non-extensive approach. Tectonophysics 494:155–162.Google Scholar
  25. Telesca L, Lovallo M (2009) Non-uniform scaling features in central italy seismicity: A non-linear approach in investigating seismic patterns and detection of possible earthquake precursors. Geophys Res Lett 36:L01308.Google Scholar
  26. Telesca L, Lapenna V, Vallianatos F (2002) Monofractal and multifractal approaches in investigating scaling properties in temporal patterns of the 1983–2000 seismicity in the Western Corinth Graben (Greece). Phys Earth Planet Int 131:63–79.Google Scholar
  27. Telesca L, Lovallo M, Ramírez-Rojas A, Angulo-Brown F (2009) A Nonlinear Strategy to Reveal Seismic Precursory Signatures in Earthquake-related Self-potential Signals. Physica A 388:2036–2040.Google Scholar
  28. Telesca L, Lovallo M, Carniel R (2010) Time-dependent Fisher Information Measure of volcanic tremor before 5 April 2003 paroxysm at Stromboli volcano Italy. J Volcanol Geoterm Res 195:78–82.Google Scholar
  29. Telesca L, Chamoli A, Lovallo M, Stabile T (2014) Investigating the tsunamigenic potential of earthquakes from analysis of the informational and multifractal properties of seismograms. Pure Appl Geophys. doi: 10.1007/s00024-014-0862-3.
  30. Tenenbaum JN, Havlin S, Stanley HE (2012) Earthquake networks based on similar activity patterns. Phys Rev E 86:046107.Google Scholar
  31. Turcotte DL (1997) Fractals and Chaos in Geology and Geophysics, 2nd edn. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.Google Scholar
  32. Varotsos P, Alexopoulos K (1984a) Physical Properties of the variations of the electric field of the earth preceding earthquakes, I. Tectonophysics 110:73–98.Google Scholar
  33. Varotsos P, Alexopoulos K (1984b) Physical Properties of the variations of the electric field of the earth preceding earthquakes, II. Tectonophysics 110:99–125.Google Scholar
  34. Varotsos P, Alexopoulos K (1986) Thermodynamics of Point Defects and their Relation with Bulk Properties. North Holland, Amsterdam.Google Scholar
  35. Varotsos P, Lazaridou M (1991) Latest aspects of earthquake prediction in Greece based on Seismic Electric Signals. Tectonophysics 188:321–347.Google Scholar
  36. Varotsos P, Alexopoulos K, Nomicos K, Lazaridou M (1988) Official earthquake prediction procedure in Greece. Tectonophysics 152:193–196.Google Scholar
  37. Varotsos P, Alexopoulos K, Lazaridou M (1993) Latest aspects of earthquake prediction in Greece based on Seismic Electric Signals, II. Tectonophysics 224:1–37.Google Scholar
  38. Varotsos P, Eftaxias K, Lazaridou M, Antonopoulos G, Makris J, Poliyiannakis J (1996a) Summary of the five principles suggested by Varotsos et al. [1996] and the additional questions raised in this debate. Geophys Res Lett 23:1449–1452.Google Scholar
  39. Varotsos P, Eftaxias K, Vallianatos F, Lazaridou M (1996b) Basic principles for evaluating an earthquake prediction method. Geophys Res Lett 23:1295–1298.Google Scholar
  40. Varotsos P, Sarlis N, Skordas E (2011a) Scale-specific order parameter fluctuations of seismicity in natural time before mainshocks. EPL 96:59,002.Google Scholar
  41. Varotsos PA, Sarlis NV, Skordas ES (2011b) Natural Time Analysis: The new view of time. Precursory Seismic Electric Signals, Earthquakes and other Complex Time-Series. Springer-Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg.Google Scholar
  42. Varotsos P, Sarlis N, Skordas E (2012a) Remarkable changes in the distribution of the order parameter of seismicity before mainshocks. EPL 100:39,002.Google Scholar
  43. Varotsos P, Sarlis N, Skordas E (2012b) Scale-specific order parameter fluctuations of seismicity before mainshocks: Natural time and detrended fluctuation analysis. EPL 99:59,001.Google Scholar
  44. Varotsos PA, Sarlis NV, Skordas ES (2012c) Order parameter fluctuations in natural time and b-value variation before large earthquakes. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science 12:3473–3481.Google Scholar
  45. Varotsos PA, Sarlis NV, Skordas ES (2001) Spatio-temporal complexity aspects on the interrelation between seismic electric signals and seismicity. Practica of Athens Academy 76:294–321.Google Scholar
  46. Varotsos PA, Sarlis NV, Skordas ES (2002) Long-range correlations in the electric signals that precede rupture. Phys Rev E 66:011902.Google Scholar
  47. Varotsos PA, Sarlis NV, Tanaka HK, Skordas ES (2005) Similarity of fluctuations in correlated systems: The case of seismicity. Phys Rev E 72:041103.Google Scholar
  48. Varotsos PA, Sarlis NV, Skordas ES, Lazaridou MS (2013) Seismic electric signals: An additional fact showing their physical interconnection with seismicity. Tectonophysics 589:116–125.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Basel 2014

Authors and Affiliations

  • N. V. Sarlis
    • 1
  • E. S. Skordas
    • 1
  • S.-R. G. Christopoulos
    • 1
  • P. A. Varotsos
    • 1
  1. 1.Department of Solid State Physics and Solid Earth Physics Institute, Faculty of Physics, School of ScienceNational and Kapodistrian University of AthensAthensGreece

Personalised recommendations