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Investigating the Tsunamigenic Potential of Earthquakes from Analysis of the Informational and Multifractal Properties of Seismograms

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Abstract

Revealing the tsunamigenic potential of an earthquake is very challenging in regards to minimizing the casualties a tsunami can provoke. Thus, development of methodologies that can reliably furnish a early warnings of a tsunami is crucial. In order to accomplish this aim it is important to preliminarily identify the characteristics of seismograms that can be used to distinguish tsunamigenic (TS) earthquakes from non-tsunamigenic (NTS) earthquakes. In this paper P-wave time dynamic of 17 seismograms of TS earthquakes and 26 NTS seismograms are analysed by means of two advanced statistical tools: the Fisher–Shannon method and the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA). Both methods are well suited to disclosing the inner time properties of complex signals, as seismograms appear to be. Using these two methods jointly, we defined a classifier, the performance of which was tested by means of the receiver-operating characteristic curve that plots true positive rate versus false positive rate. This classifier shows a discrimination power that can be considered acceptable in comparison with the devastating effects caused by a non-alarmed tsunami. Our findings indicate that proper choice of the classifier’s threshold allows correctly identification of approximately 69 % of the NTS seismograms and approximately 76 % of the TS seismograms. The presented results presented may be helpful in addressing the complex problem of early tsunami warning.

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Acknowledgments

The present study was supported by the project “Development of time series analysis tools for the earthquakes and their tsunamigenic behaviour” in the framework of the Italy-India Bilateral Agreement 2012–2014 between the Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR) and the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto di Metodologie per l’Analisi Ambientale, C.da S.Loja, 85050, Tito, PZ, Italy

    Luciano Telesca & Tony Alfredo Stabile

  2. Department of Earth Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee, 247667, Uttarakhand, India

    Ashutosh Chamoli

  3. CSIR-National Geophysical Research Institute, Hyderabad, 500 007, India

    Ashutosh Chamoli

  4. ARPAB, 85100, Potenza, Italy

    Michele Lovallo

Authors
  1. Luciano Telesca
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  2. Ashutosh Chamoli
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  3. Michele Lovallo
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  4. Tony Alfredo Stabile
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Correspondence to Luciano Telesca.

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Telesca, L., Chamoli, A., Lovallo, M. et al. Investigating the Tsunamigenic Potential of Earthquakes from Analysis of the Informational and Multifractal Properties of Seismograms. Pure Appl. Geophys. 172, 1933–1943 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-014-0862-3

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-014-0862-3

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