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On the Predictability of Northeast Monsoon Rainfall over South Peninsular India in General Circulation Models

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Abstract

In this study the predictability of northeast monsoon (Oct–Nov–Dec) rainfall over peninsular India by eight general circulation model (GCM) outputs was analyzed. These GCM outputs (forecasts for the whole season issued in September) were compared with high-resolution observed gridded rainfall data obtained from the India Meteorological Department for the period 1982–2010. Rainfall, interannual variability (IAV), correlation coefficients, and index of agreement were examined for the outputs of eight GCMs and compared with observation. It was found that the models are able to reproduce rainfall and IAV to different extents. The predictive power of GCMs was also judged by determining the signal-to-noise ratio and the external error variance; it was noted that the predictive power of the models was usually very low. To examine dominant modes of interannual variability, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was also conducted. EOF analysis of the models revealed they were capable of representing the observed precipitation variability to some extent. The teleconnection between the sea surface temperature (SST) and northeast monsoon rainfall was also investigated and results suggest that during OND the SST over the equatorial Indian Ocean, the Bay of Bengal, the central Pacific Ocean (over Nino3 region), and the north and south Atlantic Ocean enhances northeast monsoon rainfall. This observed phenomenon is only predicted by the CCM3v6 model.

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Acknowledgments

This research is supported by the Government of India funded project “Development and Application of Extended Range Forecast System (ERFS) for Climate Risk Management in Agriculture”. India Meteorological Department (IMD) is acknowledged for providing observed gridded rainfall datasets. The model datasets used in this study have been provided by the International Research Institute of Climate and Society (IRI), USA. The computing for the GCM simulations performed by the IRI and was partially provided by a grant from the NCAR Climate System Laboratory (CSL) program to the IRI. The IRI represents a cooperative agreement between the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Office of Global Programs and Columbia University. The authors are very much grateful to Mr Anil Singh for his assistance in improving the figures of the manuscript. Sincere thanks to both of the reviewers for their expert comments which enhanced the quality of the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology, Hauz Khas, New Delhi, 110 016, India

    Archana Nair, Nachiketa Acharya, Ankita Singh & U. C. Mohanty

  2. Utkal University, Bhubaneswar, India

    T. C. Panda

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  1. Archana Nair
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  2. Nachiketa Acharya
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  3. Ankita Singh
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  4. U. C. Mohanty
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Correspondence to Nachiketa Acharya.

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Nair, A., Acharya, N., Singh, A. et al. On the Predictability of Northeast Monsoon Rainfall over South Peninsular India in General Circulation Models. Pure Appl. Geophys. 170, 1945–1967 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-012-0633-y

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