Abstract
An automated short-range forecasting system, adaptive blending of observations and model (ABOM), was tested in real time during the 2010 Vancouver Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games in British Columbia. Data at 1-min time resolution were available from a newly established, dense network of surface observation stations. Climatological data were not available at these new stations. This, combined with output from new high-resolution numerical models, provided a unique and exciting setting to test nowcasting systems in mountainous terrain during winter weather conditions. The ABOM method blends extrapolations in time of recent local observations with numerical weather predictions (NWP) model predictions to generate short-range point forecasts of surface variables out to 6 h. The relative weights of the model forecast and the observation extrapolation are based on performance over recent history. The average performance of ABOM nowcasts during February and March 2010 was evaluated using standard scores and thresholds important for Olympic events. Significant improvements over the model forecasts alone were obtained for continuous variables such as temperature, relative humidity and wind speed. The small improvements to forecasts of variables such as visibility and ceiling, subject to discontinuous changes, are attributed to the persistence component of ABOM.
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Acknowledgments
This project was supported by the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and specifically the Nowcasting Working Group of WWRP. The authors wish to thank their many colleagues at Environment Canada, the Pacific and Yukon Region and at the Canadian Meteorological Centre for the installation and maintenance of instrument stations and providing timely access to observation and model data during the project.
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Bailey, M.E., Isaac, G.A., Gultepe, I. et al. Adaptive Blending of Model and Observations for Automated Short-Range Forecasting: Examples from the Vancouver 2010 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games. Pure Appl. Geophys. 171, 257–276 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-012-0553-x
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-012-0553-x