Estimation of Maximum Earthquakes in Northeast India

Abstract

We attempt to estimate possible maximum earthquakes in the northeast Indian region for four seismic source zones, namely EHZ, MBZ, EBZ, and SHZ, which encapsulates the various seismogenic structures of the region and also for combined source zones taken as a single seismic source regime. The latter case exhibits a high maximum earthquake estimate of M_W 9.4 (±0.85) through Bayesian interpretation of frequency magnitude distribution with Gamma function implicating a moderate deviation from the standard Gutenberg Richter model at the higher magnitudes. However, tapering Gutenberg Richter models with corner magnitudes at M_W 8.01, 8.7 and 9.1, respectively indicated maximum values corresponding to M_W 8.4, 9.0, and 9.3. The former approach was applied to each of the source zones wherein the data are presented in parts according to the data completeness, thereof. EHZ, MBZ, EBZ and SHZ are seen with maximum earthquakes of M_W 8.35 (±0.59), 8.79 (±0.31), 8.20 (±0.50), and 8.73 (±0.70), respectively. The maximum possible earthquakes estimated for each individual zone are seen to be lower than that estimated for the single regime. However, the pertaining return periods estimated for the combined zone are far less than those estimated for the demarcated ones.