Pure and Applied Geophysics

, Volume 164, Issue 10, pp 1947–1962 | Cite as

On Earthquake Predictability Measurement: Information Score and Error Diagram

  • Yan Y. KaganEmail author


We discuss two methods for measuring the effectiveness of earthquake prediction algorithms: The information score based on the likelihood ratio and error diagrams. For both of these methods, closed form expressions are obtained for the renewal process based on the gamma and lognormal distributions. The error diagram is more informative than the likelihood ratio and uniquely specifies the information score. We derive an expression connecting the information score and error diagrams. We then obtain the estimate of the region bounds in the error diagram for any value of the information score. We discuss how these preliminary results can be extended for more realistic models of earthquake occurrence.


Earthquake prediction statistical methods seismicity renewal processes information score error diagram 


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Copyright information

© Birkhäuser Verlag, Basel, 2007

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Earth and Space SciencesUniversity of CaliforniaLos AngelesU.S.A

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