A Seasonal Statistical Evaluation of COAMPS^® over the Arabian Gulf Region

Abstract

A statistical evaluation of the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS^®) was performed over the Arabian Gulf region for the period, 1 August to 5 October, 2004. Verification skill scores of bias and root-mean-square error were estimated for surface variables and for vertical profiles to investigate any diurnal variations. The model predictions of boundary-layer heights are compared with the observations at Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The Middle East presents challenges to numerical weather prediction due to complex land-ocean-land mesoscale processes. An independent data set of surface measurements from 50 stations in the UAE was available from the Department of Water Resources Studies, Abu Dhabi for model verification. The results indicate a diurnal variation in the model errors. The errors are small considering the magnitudes of the observed variables. Errors in the coastal region can be attributed to the differences in the timing of the onset of sea and land breeze circulations in the simulations as compared to the observations. Errors are relatively smaller in the offshore locations.